Understand the Model
Three rules carry most of the weight. They exist to stop the two failures that make infrastructure analysis unreliable: treating an announcement as a measurement, and compressing a system into a single number.
1 — Three epistemic states, never interchangeable
Every material datum carries one of three states.
observed
A fact, state or measurement treated as having existed in the real world during the stated valid time. Confidence still applies.
expected
A future or uncertain state attributed to an issuer, contract, plan, analyst or model. Issuer, method and issue date are retained where material.
scenario
A hypothetical value or state used in a stress test. Never part of the observed baseline.
Conversion from expected to observed requires new evidence. It is never an automatic time-based transition.
Scenario output never contaminates the observed baseline. See Epistemic Status.
2 — No single primary score
A conclusion rests on a multidimensional evidence table, not on one index. A composite indicator may be computed, but only as a secondary and decomposable estimate — it does not replace the table. For the Middle Corridor pilot, comparable evidence is sought on thirteen dimensions:
- throughput
- end-to-end transit time
- transit-time variability
- service frequency
- regularity and reliability
- rail segment capacity
- Caspian port handling
- ferry and crossing capacity
- border-processing time
- modal-transfer burden
- indicative cost, where comparable
- asset availability
- substitution options
3 — A project earns its effect through a short chain
Project → asset change → functional-link change → corridor metric change
Every material project assessment must also document the adjacent constraints and counter-effects capable of limiting, delaying, displacing or neutralising the announced benefit. A project that removes one constraint and creates another has not improved the system; it has moved the problem.
What counts as a transformation
A system transformation is not a headline. A candidate becomes validated only when it satisfies all of the following:
- significant change on at least two analytical dimensions
- effect on at least two segments or functional links
- persistence, or substantial irreversible investment
- operational evidence, not announcement
- major objections considered
- explicit human validation
Machines may surface candidate patterns; a canonical transformation requires human analytical validation. See the validation protocol.
What is in scope
Every included infrastructure or project receives one primary strategic level.
L1 — Global structural
Can materially affect global flows.
L2 — Macro-regional structural
Shapes flows across a continent, basin or major economic system.
L3 — Strategic connector
Nationally located asset or system with significant international spillover.
Low economic value alone is never a reason for exclusion when the object performs a structurally important function. Ten infrastructure families are covered:
- Maritime
maritime - Rail
rail - Road
road - Inland waterways
inland_waterway - Intermodal logistics
intermodal_logistics - Air cargo
air_cargo - Energy transport and transfer
energy - Digital infrastructure
digital - Border and logistics coordination
border_coordination - Strategic storage
strategic_storage
What the model deliberately is not
World Fabric does not claim to be a complete digital twin of the world economy. The data model may stay compatible with future sophistication, but the V1 implementation remains narrow: new concepts or engines are added only when a demonstrated research failure requires them. The full reasoning is in the charter and the architecture decisions.