Epistemic Status

observed

A fact, state or measurement treated as having existed in the real world during the stated valid time. Confidence still applies.

expected

A future or uncertain state attributed to an issuer, contract, plan, analyst or model. Must retain issuer/method and issue date where material.

scenario

A hypothetical value or state used in a scenario/stress test. Never part of the observed baseline.

Hard rule

Conversion from expected to observed requires new evidence. It is never an automatic time-based transition.