HRC extradition already in motion effective yesterday with several countries in case of cross border run. Passport approved to be flagged effective 10/30 @ 12:01am.
What happened. Q claimed Hillary Clinton's passport would be flagged on 30 October 2017 as part of an alleged extradition. Nothing of the kind was reported: Clinton was never arrested or charged and continued to travel freely.
Did not happen
28% of Q's 140 checkable predictions came true.
16% once already-scheduled events are set aside. Announced arrests and indictments: 0 of 8. All 140 checked claims
Between Oct 28, 2017 and Nov 27, 2022, "Q" published 4,966 posts on 4chan, then 8chan and 8kun. This site measures them, dates them and checks them against real-world events.
- drops
- 4,966
- active days
- 533
- words in total
- 150,193
- of drops contain a question
- 38%
Was Q right?
- In the horoscope test (300 drops, blind), the model recognises the real news period in 75% of decided cases for the 7 days before the drop, and in 68% for the 30 days after. Yet 6% of randomly drawn periods still get a score of at least 5 out of 10.
- 17 prediction subjects (same event, same actor) are announced in at least three different months (74 predictions). In 7 of them the announcement returns after a checked failure.
Was Q speaking for Trump?
- A Trump tweet follows a drop within 5 minutes in 4.2% of cases, versus 4.0% expected by chance (difference not significant, p = 0.227).
- The event that most raised curiosity about QAnon on Wikipedia was First widely covered "Q" signs at a Trump rally in Tampa (views ×13.3 the following week).
Who wrote, and how?
- Stylometry places the sharpest change in style around Nov 25, 2017, when Q moved to 8chan. This is consistent with the 2022 analyses of a change of author, but cannot be told apart from a change of platform.
- On average 1.4 question marks per drop. The rhetorical question is the signature of Q's style.
- Q posts in bursts. 26% of drops follow the previous one within 5 minutes (burstiness 0.91), grouped into 1,743 sessions (Statistics page).
- The longest silence lasted 563 days, from Dec 8, 2020 to Jun 24, 2022.
What did Q talk about?
- The most-named actors are Donald Trump (386), Mainstream media (241), Barack Obama (166), FBI (153), Hillary Clinton (131), by number of drops.
- Compared with world news volume (GDELT), the actors Q most over-represents are George Soros (×15.8), Hillary Clinton (×8.0), Democratic Party (×3.1).
- Outside social media, the most linked news outlet is foxnews.com (149 drops), far ahead of thehill.com (41).
Where did Q come from?
- On /pol/, the board where Q was born, 16 of the 55 dated formulas appear first in Q's posts, and 16 were already circulating before. Q threads make up 6.9% of the board's posts in November 2017, then almost nothing.
The publishing rhythm
New York time. Marks above the chart are timeline events, which you can hover over.