Q's predictions
Q made countless announcements: arrests, indictments, declassifications, an imminent "storm". To list them all and check them against the facts, every drop is submitted to a language model, chosen after an evaluation on a reference annotation set.
Did the predictions come true?
250 specific or dated predictions checked one by one. Of the 140 checkable ones, 39 came true, 22 partly and 79 did not (110 unverifiable), a fulfilment rate of 28%. 35 concerned events already publicly scheduled. Excluding them, the rate is 16%. 40 automatic extractions were not real predictions.
Method
The horizon is the stated deadline, otherwise 12 months after the drop, and every checkable prediction gets a sourced verdict. "Trivial" means an event already announced or scheduled when Q posted (election, hearing, official trip). When Q adopts someone else's announcement, the quote counts as Q's prediction (trivial if already public), but a quote made to denounce, or not about the future, does not. Rate = fulfilled ÷ checkable (fulfilled + partial + not fulfilled). The full protocol is in verification-README.md (Data). Verification was assisted by research agents, with sources consulted online, and is still to be reviewed.
| Predictions | Came true | Partly | Did not happen | Unverifiable | Rate | 95% CI | Rate incl. partial | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All | 250 | 39 | 22 | 79 | 110 | 28% | 21%–36% | 44% |
| Non-trivial | 215 | 17 | 14 | 77 | 107 | 16% | 10%–24% | 29% |
| 2017 | 38 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 20 | 11% | 3%–33% | 28% |
| 2018 | 140 | 26 | 11 | 42 | 61 | 33% | 24%–44% | 47% |
| 2019 | 36 | 6 | 2 | 13 | 15 | 29% | 14%–50% | 38% |
| 2020 | 36 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 14 | 23% | 10%–43% | 50% |
By event type
| Predictions | Came true | Partly | Did not happen | Unverifiable | Rate | 95% CI | Rate incl. partial | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 131 | 20 | 13 | 22 | 76 | 36% | 25%–50% | 60% |
| Disclosure | 44 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 19 | 12% | 4%–30% | 24% |
| Declassification | 14 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 0% | 0%–28% | 10% |
| Military action | 14 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 22% | 6%–55% | 56% |
| Resignation | 14 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 50% | 27%–73% | 57% |
| Attack | 8 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0% | 0%–56% | 0% |
| Election | 8 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 14% | 3%–51% | 14% |
| Economy | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 60% | 23%–88% | 80% |
| Indictment | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0%–43% | 0% |
| Arrest | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 0%–56% | 0% |
| Court ruling | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 44%–100% | 100% |
| Death | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0%–79% | 0% |
Prediction by prediction
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Q claims that Hillary Clinton’s passport will be flagged beginning at 12:01 a.m. on October 30, 2017.
Q claimed Hillary Clinton's passport would be flagged on 30 October 2017 as part of an alleged extradition. Nothing of the kind was reported: Clinton was never arrested or charged and continued to travel freely. [1] [2]
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Q claims that the U.S. military will conduct an operation while the National Guard is activated, including activation for duty across most major cities on October 30, 2017.
Q claimed a military operation and a National Guard activation across most major cities on 30 October 2017. No such mobilisation, nor the riots Q announced, took place. [1] [2]
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Q claims that Hillary Clinton will be arrested after her alleged detention.
Q claimed Hillary Clinton was 'detained' and would be arrested. She was never arrested or charged; this is among Q's most cited failed predictions. [1] [2]
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Q claims that the President will not appear on television to address the nation.
The claim is tied to an alleged arrest of Hillary Clinton that never happened, so it has no checkable object. Trump did give several televised addresses on other topics (e.g. the State of the Union on 30 January 2018).
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Q claims that the President will isolate himself to avoid negative public optics.
'Isolating himself to avoid negative optics' describes no observable fact, and the claim depends on arrests that did not happen.
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Q signals that an unspecified event or development called “Mockingbird” will occur or become significant on October 30, 2017.
'Mockingbird 10.30.17' names no specific event. 30 October 2017 was the day the special counsel's indictment of Paul Manafort and Rick Gates was unsealed, but charges had already been reported on 27 October, and nothing links the code word to that event.
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Q claims that POTUS will not address the nation about these issues, purportedly to remain neutral for public-relations reasons.
The claim concerns Trump's stance 'as people begin to be indicted' in alleged prosecutions of his opponents that never took place, so it has no checkable object.
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Q claims that POTUS will not address the nation about these issues while indictments begin, in order to remain publicly neutral.
A variant of the previous post: Trump's neutrality is conditioned on indictments announced by Q that did not happen; nothing checkable.
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Q claims that Senate Republicans who are dropping out will nevertheless vote in support of President Trump.
Q claimed departing Senate Republicans (Jeff Flake and Bob Corker had announced in October 2017 they would not seek re-election) would vote 'pro Trump'. Both voted with Trump's position roughly 86-90% of the time and for the final tax bill in December 2017, but Corker voted against the Senate version on 2 December 2017 and both publicly criticised the president; Q's claim that their departures were 'not by choice' is unsupported. [1] [2]
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Q claims that John Podesta will be indicted on November 3, 2017.
Q claimed John Podesta would be indicted on 3 November 2017. This did not happen: Podesta was never charged. [1] [2]
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Q claims that Huma Abedin will be indicted on November 6, 2017.
Q claimed Huma Abedin would be indicted on 6 November 2017. This did not happen: Abedin was never charged. [1] [2]
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Q claims that events on Friday and Saturday will deliver on the MAGA political promise.
'Delivering on the MAGA promise' on Friday and Saturday names no specific event. On Friday 3 November 2017 Trump left for an Asia tour, without the firings or arrests followers expected.
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Q claims that Donald Trump will face no impeachment risk.
Q claimed Trump faced 'zero risk of impeachment'. No impeachment occurred within the 12-month horizon (fulfilled over that period); Trump was later impeached twice by the House (18 December 2019 and 13 January 2021) and acquitted by the Senate both times. [1] [2]
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Q claims that local and national Black leaders whom Q characterizes as false will next be exposed as shills for the Democratic Party.
'False black leaders' being exposed: no identifiable person, fact or criterion allows this partisan claim to be checked.
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Q claims that proof or evidence related to the subject of the post will begin to emerge.
'Proof to begin 11.3' specifies neither the nature nor the object of the proof. No disclosure matching Q's claims was made public on that date.
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Q claims that an announcement of John Podesta’s arrest will occur.
Q claimed John Podesta's arrest would be announced on 3 November 2017. No arrest was announced; Podesta was never arrested or charged. [1] [2]
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Q claims that action related to John Podesta’s arrest will occur.
Q presented Podesta's arrest as 'actionable 11.4'. Nothing of the kind happened. [1] [2]
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Q claims that public riots will occur in an effort to prevent the arrests and capture of additional senior public officials.
Q claimed large organised riots would aim to prevent the arrest of senior officials. Neither the arrests nor the riots occurred. [1] [2]
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Q claims that temporary military control will be imposed within the country.
Q claimed a 'state of temporary military control' would be imposed in the US. No such regime was ever put in place. [1] [2]
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Q claims that special-operations missions will be conducted domestically and abroad.
US special operations abroad are continuous and largely secret; no domestic operation of the kind Q described was reported. The claim cannot be checked as stated.
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Q claims that the Emergency Broadcast System will be activated to deliver a message to the public.
Q claimed the Emergency Broadcast System would carry a direct message to citizens during the arrests. This did not happen; the only nationwide message was FEMA's scheduled test of the Presidential Alert on 3 October 2018, unrelated to Q's claims. [1] [2]
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Q claims that National Guard deployments will begin the following day.
National Guard deployments happen constantly (notably after the 2017 hurricanes); no unusual deployment linked to Q's claims was reported on 3 November 2017.
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Q claims that confirmations of the asserted developments will occur tomorrow.
'Watch for confirmations tomorrow' does not say what would be confirmed; nothing checkable.
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Q claims that the U.S. president will send an important message via Twitter before departing on Friday.
Q claimed Trump would send an 'important' Twitter message before departing on Friday. On 3 November 2017, the announced start of his Asia tour, Trump posted tweets urging the Justice Department and FBI to investigate Clinton and the Democrats; the trip was pre-announced and Trump tweeted daily. [1] [2]
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Q claims that a major false-flag attack will occur today.
'False flag' presumes an uncheckable hidden intent. No major attack occurred in the US on 2 November 2017.
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Q indicates that a publication or post associated with “TP” (apparently the President) will occur on November 6, 2017.
The post is a string of codes ('11_6_TP_Pub') with no established meaning; the model's reading rests on nothing checkable.
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Q claims that the elections scheduled for Tuesday will no longer matter at this stage.
'Elections (tues) no longer matter' is an opinion, not the announcement of an event. The 7 November 2017 elections (Virginia, New Jersey) took place normally.
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Q claims that a witness will appear publicly.
Q does not name the 'witness' supposedly due to appear; there is no identifiable fact to check.
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Q claims that Twitter will implement a new tracking, cookies, or spyware-related policy effective around mid-December.
Twitter did start enforcing new rules on 18 December 2017, but they targeted hateful, abusive and violent content, not the tracking or cookies Q mentioned; the rules had been publicly announced in November 2017. [1]
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Q presents as a possible outcome that the Secret Service will advise the president to stop using Twitter because of the new policy and associated security risks.
Q described a scenario in which the Secret Service would advise Trump to stop using Twitter. Trump kept tweeting heavily until Twitter suspended his account on 8 January 2021. [1]
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Q presents as a possible outcome that Twitter will silence or restrict the president because of its new policy.
Trump was not silenced on Twitter within the horizon; his account was suspended on 8 January 2021, after the Capitol attack, for reasons unrelated to Q's scenario. [1]
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Q claims that POTUS will refuse to be silenced on Twitter.
'POTUS refuses to be silenced' is a phrase without a precise object, tied to a hypothetical scenario; Trump simply kept tweeting.
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Q claims that the leadership of the United States will change.
The drop lists 'USA_leadership change' and 'SA_leadership change' (no question mark: changes that had already happened, the 2016 election and Mohammed bin Salman becoming crown prince in June 2017), then 'GER_leadership change?' and 'PAK_leadership change?' (questions). Under the project's guidelines, neither a statement about the past nor a question is a prediction.
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Q claims that the leadership of Saudi Arabia will change.
The drop lists 'USA_leadership change' and 'SA_leadership change' (no question mark: changes that had already happened, the 2016 election and Mohammed bin Salman becoming crown prince in June 2017), then 'GER_leadership change?' and 'PAK_leadership change?' (questions). Under the project's guidelines, neither a statement about the past nor a question is a prediction.
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Q claims that the leadership of Germany will change.
The drop lists 'USA_leadership change' and 'SA_leadership change' (no question mark: changes that had already happened, the 2016 election and Mohammed bin Salman becoming crown prince in June 2017), then 'GER_leadership change?' and 'PAK_leadership change?' (questions). Under the project's guidelines, neither a statement about the past nor a question is a prediction.
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Q suggests that the leadership of Pakistan may change.
The drop lists 'USA_leadership change' and 'SA_leadership change' (no question mark: changes that had already happened, the 2016 election and Mohammed bin Salman becoming crown prince in June 2017), then 'GER_leadership change?' and 'PAK_leadership change?' (questions). Under the project's guidelines, neither a statement about the past nor a question is a prediction.
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Q claims that an unspecified event or development will occur tomorrow.
'Be here tomorrow' announces no identifiable event.
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Q implies that an unspecified significant event will occur or be revealed next week.
'Just wait until next week' announces no identifiable event.
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Q claims that Hussein will release or appear in a red-related video response on December 27, 2017.
On 27 December 2017 BBC Radio 4 aired Barack Obama's interview with Prince Harry (recorded in September, announced on 17 December, i.e. after Q's post). It was a radio interview with no established link to a 'response' or to Q's 'RED' code; the date matches, the substance does not. [1] [2]
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Q claims that Hussein will be in Asia on December 28, 2017.
No public source places Barack Obama in Asia on 28 December 2017; his public Asia tour (Shanghai, New Delhi) took place in late November - early December 2017, before the post. His private year-end movements are not reliably documented. [1]
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Q claims that the New England Patriots will win the fourth quarter.
'4th quarter, Patriots' is a rallying slogan addressed to followers, not a sports forecast.
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Q claims that within 24 hours the trip code will be restored or Q will depart.
Q is talking about its own identifying tripcode and presence on the board, not about an outside event.
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Q claims that an unspecified real-world event will occur when a 10-day countdown ends.
'Clock started - 10 days' does not specify the expected event.
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Q claims that, within the next few months, board owners, moderators, and other supporters will receive a personalized message on multiple platforms recognizing their contributions.
A personalised message to moderators and contributors would be private communication that cannot be checked.
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Q claims that the President of the United States will directly verify information in order to authorize its dissemination.
Q claimed Trump would 'verify directly' its posts. Trump never authenticated Q; asked in August 2020, he said he did not know much about the movement. [1] [2]
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Q claims that a significant, unspecified real-world event will occur next week.
'BIG NEXT WEEK' announces no identifiable event.
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Q claims that Matlock will become public.
'Matlock' is a code name with no defined object; nothing to check.
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Q suggests that a non-nuclear military action described as “FIRE & FURY” will occur or be initiated on April 10, 2020, involving unspecified states and commands.
Q combined 'DEFCON 1', '4-10-20' and 'FIRE & FURY'. No military action of the kind took place on 10 April 2020 and DEFCON 1 has never been publicly declared; commentators also read '4-10-20' as the letters D-J-T. [1]
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Q claims that POTUS will alter his tweets to appear at one-minute intervals and add the letter “Q.”
The post is a conditional instruction ('Directly after POTUS alters Tweets...') with no deadline; nothing shows Trump ever added 'Q' to his tweets.
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Q claims that a significant, unspecified event will occur during the upcoming week.
'BIG week' announces no identifiable event.
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Q claims that a larger event or development will become public the following week.
'Next Week - BIGGER. PUBLIC.' announces no identifiable event.
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Q claims that a bigger, unspecified event or development will occur next week.
'BIGGER next week' announces no identifiable event.
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Q claims that the president may retweet one or more of the referenced memes or posts.
Q wrote that Trump 'may' retweet memes during his 'Fake News Awards' (published 17 January 2018, announced by Trump himself); the hedged wording and lack of identified memes make the claim uncheckable.
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Q claims that major false-flag attacks or operations will be attempted during the current week.
'Major false flag attempts this week' presumes an uncheckable hidden intent and names no specific event.
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Q claims that the referenced memo will be released after final clearance is completed.
The House Intelligence Committee memo drafted by Devin Nunes's staff, the subject of a public #ReleaseTheMemo campaign when Q posted, was released on 2 February 2018 after White House clearance. [1]
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Q claims that the memo will reinstate Jeff Sessions’s authority over matters related to Russia and other investigations.
Q claimed the memo would reinstate Jeff Sessions's authority over the Russia inquiry. Sessions remained recused from the inquiry until his forced resignation on 7 November 2018. [1] [2]
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Q claims that the memo will demonstrate collusion at the highest levels.
The Nunes memo, released on 2 February 2018, dealt with FISA surveillance applications targeting Carter Page; it did not demonstrate any 'collusion at the highest levels'. The December 2019 Inspector General report found 17 significant errors or omissions in those applications but no political bias behind the opening of the inquiry. [1]
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Q claims that the memo will demonstrate that the Obama administration weaponized the intelligence community to ensure Donald Trump’s defeat and maintain an insurance plan.
The memo alleged the FISA applications relied on the Steele dossier without disclosing its funding, but it did not demonstrate that the Obama administration weaponised intelligence to secure a Democratic victory. The Inspector General (December 2019) found no political bias in the opening of the inquiry. [1]
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Q claims that the memo will demonstrate that knowingly false intelligence was provided to FISA judges to obtain warrants.
The Nunes memo was released on February 2, 2018; it asserted that the FISA court had not been told about the political funding of the Steele dossier used against Carter Page. It did not establish that 'knowingly false' intelligence was provided, and the FBI and the Democratic minority disputed its framing; errors in the FISA applications were documented by the inspector general only in December 2019. [1] [2]
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Q claims that a significant, globally consequential event will occur within the coming week.
An announcement with no identifiable object or checkable criterion: nothing specifies what was supposed to happen.
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Q claims that the NSA will accidentally release all of the referenced materials.
Q claimed the NSA would 'accidentally release it all', without saying what; no checkable object is identified.
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Q claims that the current week will bring revealing developments or disclosures.
An announcement with no identifiable object or checkable criterion: nothing specifies what was supposed to happen.
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Q claims that significant events or developments will occur during 2018.
'2018 will be glorious': a slogan with no checkable criterion.
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Q endorses or highlights the claim that Donald Trump will no longer be president within about a year.
Q quotes a Fox News article reporting a remark attributed to John Kerry (Trump 'could be out in a year'); this is not Q's own prediction. Donald Trump remained in office until January 20, 2021. [1]
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Q claims that a significant unspecified event will occur imminently, such that nobody will sleep that night.
An announcement with no identifiable object or checkable criterion: nothing specifies what was supposed to happen.
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Q claims that every mainstream media news station will promote the same counter-narrative involving alleged Mueller-related fake news and Russia.
Q claimed every mainstream outlet would push the same 'counter-narrative' the following week; the criterion is too vague to check.
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Q suggests that an unspecified event will occur next week.
An announcement with no identifiable object or checkable criterion: nothing specifies what was supposed to happen.
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Q claims that the QAnon discussion board will be spread and discussed across all platforms in the coming months.
Q claimed the board would be discussed 'across all platforms' in the coming months. QAnon did spread widely on YouTube, Facebook and Twitter in 2018 and drew heavy mainstream coverage after Trump's Tampa rally on July 31, 2018; the claim was partly self-fulfilling. [1] [2]
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Q claims that the DHS will submit a final report to the White House, DOJ, and other state and local agencies outlining its election-interference findings as early as March 2018.
Q presented a fake DHS statement announcing a final report on 'several million illegal ballots' as early as March 2018. No such report was ever released; the Presidential Advisory Commission on Election Integrity had been disbanded on January 3, 2018 without establishing any mass fraud. [1]
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Q warns that a possible car attack may occur in London, UK, within 24 hours.
No car attack took place in London in the 24-48 hours after the February 16, 2018 post. The only such incident in London in 2018 occurred on August 14 outside Parliament, six months later. [1] [2]
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Q claims that a memorable parade involving military personnel will take place on November 11, 2018.
Trump had publicly wanted a military parade since September 2017; the Pentagon set the date to November 11, 2018 in a memo made public on March 9, three days after Q's post. The parade was cancelled on August 16-17, 2018 over its cost ($92 million); on November 11 Trump attended the Armistice centenary in Paris. [1] [2]
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Q claims that a significant news event will occur during the week of March 5–11, 2018.
An announcement with no identifiable object or checkable criterion: nothing specifies what was supposed to happen.
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Q claims that an unspecified matter will be resolved by November 11, 2018.
'Resolved by 11-11': the matter to be resolved is not identified.
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Q claims that significant events will occur during March, characterized as “madness.”
'March MADNESS': a pun with no checkable object.
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Q claims that the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing alliance will cease to exist or otherwise no longer continue for much longer.
Q claimed the Five Eyes intelligence alliance (US, UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand) would not be around much longer. It has continued to operate without interruption. [1]
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Q claims that an unspecified significant event or events will occur next week.
An announcement with no identifiable object or checkable criterion: nothing specifies what was supposed to happen.
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Q claims that approximately $700 billion will be allocated to the military during 2018.
The omnibus spending bill signed on March 23, 2018, five days before the post, had already allotted about $700 billion to defense for fiscal 2018 (the figure set by the December 2017 NDAA): Q is commenting on an established fact. [1] [2]
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Q claims that an unspecified event will occur in April, suggested by the phrase “April showers.”
'APRIL SHOWERS': a phrase with no checkable object.
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Q claims that a military- or border-related event, possibly involving a MOAB, will occur within one day.
On April 3, 2018 Trump publicly said he wanted to send the military to the Mexican border, and on April 4 he signed a memorandum deploying the National Guard. The 'MOAB' part matches no event; the border part had already been announced that same day. [1]
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Q implies that the President of the United States will eventually become subject to a criminal investigation.
The post comments on the April 2018 report that Mueller did not consider Trump a criminal target; the 'NOT YET' designates no specific event, and the extraction's reading is uncertain.
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Q claims that troops will be deployed to the border.
Trump had announced on April 3, 2018 that he wanted the military to secure the border; on April 4, the day of the post, he signed a proclamation sending the National Guard to the Mexican border. Q is echoing an already public decision. [1] [2]
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Q suggests that an unspecified event involving the United Kingdom and Germany will occur within five days.
'UK/GER [5 days]': no event is designated.
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Q claims that Mark Zuckerberg will step down as chairman.
Q claimed Mark Zuckerberg would step down as Facebook's chairman. He remained chairman and CEO; shareholder proposals for an independent chair were voted down in 2018 and on May 30, 2019. [1] [2]
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Q claims that the U.S. president will remain awake throughout the night.
There is no way to check whether the president stayed up all night.
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Q suggests that a newsworthy event will occur or be reported the following day.
'Watch the news tomorrow': no event is designated.
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Q claims that photographs will emerge showing Hussein (Barack Obama) holding an AK-47 while wearing tribal attire.
No authentic photo of Barack Obama holding an AK-47 in traditional attire has ever been made public. The only known photo of Obama in traditional dress, taken in Kenya in 2006 and circulated in February 2008, shows no weapon. [1]
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Q suggests that an unspecified event will occur in Chongqing, China, on Tuesday.
'China. Chongqing. Tuesday.': no event is designated; Q later reinterpreted this post (see 1120-0) as referring to a Xi Jinping speech given in Boao (Hainan), not Chongqing.
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Q claims that a war-related event will occur in April, suggested through the phrase “April showers” following “WAR.”
'WAR. April showers.': a phrase with no checkable object.
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Q claims that Xi Jinping or China will confirm a reduction in tariffs on automobile imports, possibly involving Ford and the United States.
On Tuesday, April 10, 2018, at the Boao Forum, Xi Jinping announced that China would 'considerably' cut import tariffs on cars that year; the cut from 25% to 15% was announced on May 22 and took effect on July 1, 2018. Q's post, published the same day, coincides with a speech that was anticipated amid trade tensions, and its Chongqing reference does not match. [1] [2]
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Q claims that actions taken today, described as a raid, will be met with swift action.
Q claimed 'swift action' would answer the raid on Michael Cohen (April 9, 2018), without saying what action.
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Q suggests that Edward Snowden will testify and then release or disclose information.
Q suggested Edward Snowden would testify and then release information. Snowden, living in Russia since 2013, did not testify before Congress or a US court during the period. [1]
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Q claims that Ruth Bader Ginsburg will step down from the Supreme Court.
Q claimed Ruth Bader Ginsburg would step down from the Supreme Court. She never resigned and died in office on September 18, 2020. [1]
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Q claims that Jeff Sessions will make a public announcement concerning leaks, potentially involving journalism ethics and standards.
On June 7-8, 2018 the Justice Department charged James Wolfe, former security director of the Senate Intelligence Committee, with lying about his contacts with reporters, and seized a New York Times reporter's records. This was not a 'public announcement' by Jeff Sessions himself, and the post's object remains vague. [1]
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Q claims that the Democratic National Committee will initiate a pre-planned lawsuit the day after the drop.
The Democratic National Committee had filed its lawsuit against Russia, the Trump campaign and WikiLeaks on Friday, April 20, 2018, the day before the post: Q is commenting on an already public fact. [1]
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Q claims that a major event referred to as “MOAB” will occur or unfold the following week.
'MOAB' next week: a metaphor with no identifiable object.
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Q claims that America will be unified again by November 11, 2018.
'America will be unified again by 11.11.18': a slogan with no checkable criterion.
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Q claims that the United States will not agree to continue the Iran nuclear deal in its current form.
On May 8, 2018 Trump announced the US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA). The decision was widely anticipated, since Trump had set a May 12 deadline in January 2018 to 'fix' the deal. [1]
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Q claims that a state dinner will take place tonight.
The state dinner honoring Emmanuel Macron did take place at the White House on April 24, 2018; it was on the official, pre-announced schedule of the state visit. [1]
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Q claims that the Speaker of the House will resign.
Q is commenting on the April 11, 2018 announcement that House Speaker Paul Ryan would not seek reelection. Ryan did not resign: he served until the end of his term on January 3, 2019. [1]
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Q cites or endorses the claim that the Mueller probe will reach a resolution within a week or two.
Q introduces ('Insert Rudy') Rudy Giuliani's public statement that the Mueller probe could be resolved in 'a week or two' and folds it into its narrative. The investigation only ended on 22 March 2019, when the Mueller report was delivered. Already public, hence trivial. [1] [2]
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Q suggests that an unspecified event or development will occur next week.
An announcement with no identifiable object or checkable criterion: nothing specifies what was supposed to happen.
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Q claims that a significant unspecified event will occur in the week ahead.
An announcement with no identifiable object or checkable criterion: nothing specifies what was supposed to happen.
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Q claims that the President of the United States will declassify information concerning Syria, Iran, and the Uranium One connection.
Q claimed the president would declassify information on Syria, Iran and Uranium One. No such declassification took place within the year; the review assigned to prosecutor John Huber, which covered Uranium One among other things, ended in early 2020 without charges. [1] [2]
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Q claims that a significant, unspecified event will occur during the coming week.
An announcement with no identifiable object or checkable criterion: nothing specifies what was supposed to happen.
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Q claims that the Justice Department inspector general will report that the FBI and DOJ broke the law during the Clinton email investigation.
Q relayed a Breitbart article. The inspector general's report released on June 14, 2018 found that James Comey had deviated from norms and been 'insubordinate', but did not conclude that the FBI or the Justice Department had broken the law, nor that political bias drove the investigative decisions. [1] [2]
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Q claims that, after the information is revealed, Rod Rosenstein will have to recuse himself or be forcibly removed from office.
Rod Rosenstein neither recused himself nor was fired. He submitted his resignation on April 29, 2019, after the Mueller report was delivered, effective May 11, 2019. [1]
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Q implies that a notable, unspecified event or series of events will occur during the coming week.
An announcement with no identifiable object or checkable criterion: nothing specifies what was supposed to happen.
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Q implies that a notable, unspecified real-world event will occur within the coming week.
An announcement with no identifiable object or checkable criterion: nothing specifies what was supposed to happen.
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Q claims that information will be released, after which the Russia investigation will end and the origins of the narrative will be shown to be corrupt.
The Russia investigation did not end because of a disclosure showing corrupt origins: Special Counsel Mueller delivered his report on March 22, 2019, establishing Russian interference without charging a conspiracy with the Trump campaign. In December 2019 the inspector general found the investigation's opening adequately predicated, with no documented political bias. [1] [2]
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Q claims that the president will declassify all relevant materials, prompted by optics and efforts to portray the Russia investigation as a political attack or cover-up.
On September 17, 2018 Trump ordered the declassification of pages of the Carter Page FISA application and of FBI officials' text messages, then suspended the order on September 21, referring the documents to the inspector general. He thus did not 'declassify it all' within the year; a broader memorandum came only on January 19, 2021. [1] [2]
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Q claims that the modified redacted IG report (the RR version) will be released on June 15, 2018.
The inspector general's report on the Clinton investigation was indeed released on June 14, 2018, a date Michael Horowitz had announced in a letter to Congress on June 7. The existence of versions 'modified by Rosenstein' is an undocumented claim by Q. [1]
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Q claims that Jeff Sessions will reveal information related to John Huber at the beginning of November 2018.
The post refers to the past: Jeff Sessions had revealed on March 29, 2018 that prosecutor John Huber had been investigating since November 2017 ('Nov start'). It announces no future revelation. [1]
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Q claims that Hillary Clinton will panic and request a deal in December 2018, in connection with John Huber.
There is no indication that Hillary Clinton sought any deal with prosecutors; she was never charged, and prosecutor Huber's review ended in early 2020 without any charges. [1] [2]
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Q claims that an unspecified future event will occur next.
'See next' points to Q's next post: it refers to Q's own posting activity, not an announced event.
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Q states that U.S. Attorney John Huber will provide recommendations about whether additional matters should be opened, whether existing investigations need more resources, or whether a special counsel should be appointed.
Q adopts Jeff Sessions's public statement (June 2018) that prosecutor John Huber would make recommendations on opening investigations or appointing a special counsel. Those recommendations were never made public; Huber's review ended in early 2020 without charges. [1]
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Q claims that Rod Rosenstein will either comply with document demands or face impeachment and removal if he refuses.
Eleven Republican members filed articles of impeachment against Rod Rosenstein on July 25, 2018, but the House never voted on them; Rosenstein was neither impeached nor removed and left office on his own on May 11, 2019. [1] [2]
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Q suggests that DOJ texts and other communications—including messages and call records—will soon be publicly disclosed.
Q hinted at the upcoming release of texts, emails and call records identified only by initials, without saying which; the set referred to is undefined. The Strzok-Page messages had already largely been made public.
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Q claims that July 2018 will be the month when the world discovers the truth, implying a significant disclosure of previously hidden information.
Q claimed July 2018 would be 'the month the world discovered the TRUTH', without saying which truth; no checkable event is named. No revelation of the suggested scale occurred that month.
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Q claims that attempts to frame Russia and the U.S. president will soon be exposed.
Q claimed attempts to 'frame' Russia and the president would soon be exposed, without saying which or by whom. The Mueller report (April 2019) instead documented Russian interference in 2016, while finding insufficient evidence of a conspiracy with the Trump campaign.
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Q claims that people pushing forced immigration will be exposed, including the reasons behind their actions.
Q claimed the pushers of 'forced immigration' would be exposed, without naming anyone or describing how; there is no checkable object.
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Q presents Trey Gowdy's stated intention that he will not seek reelection to Congress or any other elected office and will instead return to the justice system.
Q repeats Trey Gowdy's statement (31 January 2018) that he would not seek re-election and would return to the 'justice system', adding him to its list of departures. Gowdy left Congress in January 2019 and joined a law firm. Already public, hence trivial. [1]
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Q claims that events or actions will be coordinated tomorrow.
'What will tomorrow be? Coordinated.': no identifiable event is announced for July 4, 2018.
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Q claims that FISA-related material will immediately confirm illegal acts by the people who signed it.
Q claimed the FISA documents would 'immediately' confirm illegal acts by their signers. A redacted version of the Carter Page surveillance applications had been released on July 21, 2018; neither it nor the inspector general's report (December 2019, 17 significant errors or omissions) led to charges against the signers, and the Durham inquiry charged none of them. [1] [2]
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Q claims that FISA-related material will immediately confirm that the Obama administration’s alleged spying campaign to influence an election was based on false information.
Q claimed the FISA documents would prove that an Obama administration 'spy campaign to rig an election' rested on false information. The inspector general's report (December 2019) found serious errors in the Carter Page applications, but found the opening of Crossfire Hurricane adequately predicated and no evidence that political bias drove it. [1]
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Q claims that the president will declassify key portions of FISA-related material showing that the dossier was used as the primary source to obtain high-level intelligence surveillance of a Republican presidential opponent and, after the election, of the president.
Q announced a presidential declassification of key parts of the FISA documents. Trump ordered pages of the Carter Page application declassified on September 17, 2018, then backed off on September 21, sending the documents to the inspector general; nothing was declassified within the one-year horizon. [1]
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Q claims that California will experience major fires.
Q insinuated that California would light fires to obtain federal money. Major fires were already burning (Carr Fire since July 23, 2018), and the Camp Fire followed in November; investigations attributed the Carr Fire to a vehicle spark and the Camp Fire to PG&E power lines, with no link to the state. [1] [2]
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Q claims that California will declare a state of emergency and request billions of dollars in federal assistance.
California declared states of emergency and obtained federal disaster declarations for the 2018 fires (Carr Fire in August, Camp Fire in November): the standard disaster procedure, already under way when Q posted, not a scheme as Q suggested. [1] [2]
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Q suggests that Democrats will achieve a "blue wave" and win a majority in the House of Representatives in the upcoming midterm elections.
Q was describing the Democrats' strategy ('all-in [Blue Wave]'), not predicting their victory; elsewhere Q promised a 'red wave'. Democrats did win the House in November 2018. [1]
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Q claims that Devin Nunes will be removed from office.
Q claimed the Democratic push in California aimed at removing Devin Nunes, without predicting his defeat. Nunes was re-elected in November 2018 and left Congress of his own accord in January 2022. [1]
-
Q implies that a significant explosive or disruptive event will occur next week.
'BOOM [NEXT WEEK]': no identifiable event is named for the week after August 11, 2018.
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Q endorses the stated plan that the Secretary of Defense, consulting with the Secretary of Homeland Security, will issue guidance concerning the disposition of military criminal charges.
Q cites, as an expected 'effect', an already signed order (2018 amendments to the Manual for Courts-Martial) providing that the Secretary of Defense would issue nonbinding guidance. Already official, hence trivial; whether that guidance was issued, and any link to Q's scenario, is not established.
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Q claims that Google will be subjected to government regulation.
Q announced Google would be regulated, after Trump's August 28, 2018 accusations. No specific regulation was adopted within the year; the Justice Department opened an antitrust review in 2019 and only sued Google on October 20, 2020, outside the horizon. [1]
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Q claims that a big rally will take place tonight.
Trump held a rally in Evansville, Indiana, on the evening of August 30, 2018, publicly announced since August 22. [1] [2]
-
Q claims that both chambers of the U.S. Congress—the House and Senate—will be in session.
The House returned on September 4, 2018 after the August recess and the Senate was in session (Brett Kavanaugh's hearings began that day), as publicly scheduled. [1] [2]
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Q claims that Bruce Ohr’s employment termination is imminent.
Q announced Bruce Ohr's 'imminent' termination. He remained at the Justice Department well past the horizon and retired on September 30, 2020, while a disciplinary review was pending; he was not charged. [1] [2]
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Q claims that a notable, memorable event will occur within approximately one week.
'A Week to Remember': no identifiable event is announced.
-
Q claims that a significant real-world event or development will occur during the evening of September 6, 2018.
'Enjoy the show tonight' names no specific event; Trump held a previously scheduled rally in Billings, Montana, that evening.
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Q claims that Rod Rosenstein will leave his position, likely through resignation or removal.
Q announced Rod Rosenstein's imminent departure, at a time when the press was reporting he might be fired (September 2018). He left within the 12-month horizon: his resignation was announced on April 29, 2019 and took effect on May 11, 2019, after William Barr took office — a voluntary departure rather than the dismissal then rumoured. [1]
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Q claims that the public will learn in September 2018 that a grand jury has been empaneled concerning Andrew McCabe.
Q refers to already published news: the Washington Post had reported on September 6, 2018 that a grand jury was hearing witnesses regarding Andrew McCabe. McCabe was ultimately never charged (decision announced in February 2020). [1]
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Q claims that declassification of the FISA materials will initiate Rod Rosenstein's resignation, recusal, and/or removal.
Q claimed declassifying the FISA documents would trigger Rod Rosenstein's departure. That declassification, ordered on September 17, 2018, was suspended on the 21st; Rosenstein only resigned in April-May 2019, unrelated to any such release. [1] [2]
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Q claims that declassification of the FISA materials will lead to all of the signers being under investigation.
Q claimed all signers of the FISA applications would be publicly known to be under investigation. The announced declassification was suspended; the inspector general reviewed the applications (December 2019 report) and the Durham inquiry charged none of the signers. [1] [2]
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Q claims that full declassification of the FISA materials will demonstrate that the U.S. government under Barack Obama knowingly presented false evidence to the FISC to obtain intelligence surveillance authority over a presidential candidate for the purpose of influencing the 2016 election and retaining political power.
Q claimed declassification would prove 'without argument' that the Obama government knowingly presented false evidence to the FISA court to influence the election. The inspector general's report (December 2019) found 17 significant errors or omissions but did not establish political intent or an election-related scheme. [1]
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Q claims that other sites tracking Q-related communications will collapse, leaving 8chan as the main communications hub.
Q announced the collapse of the other sites relaying its posts, leaving 8chan as the only channel. Reddit closed r/greatawakening on September 12, 2018, but drop aggregators continued; it was 8chan itself that went offline on August 5, 2019. [1] [2]
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Q claims that the Department of Defense will conduct a test on Thursday to confirm the free flow of direct communications.
A national 'Presidential Alert' test by FEMA (not the Department of Defense) was publicly scheduled for Thursday, September 20, 2018; it was postponed on September 17 because of Hurricane Florence and took place on October 3, 2018. [1] [2]
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Q claims that Judge K will be confirmed regardless of the sexual-assault allegations and any pullback of the declassification effort.
Brett Kavanaugh was confirmed by the Senate on October 6, 2018 (50-48). Q's claim that Democrats offered to drop the allegations in exchange for halting declassification is not supported by any source. [1]
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Q claims that Jeff Sessions and John Huber will hold meetings over the upcoming weekend, implying developments connected to those meetings.
Q mentioned weekend meetings between Jeff Sessions and prosecutor John Huber; no public information can confirm or refute these meetings or the consequences he implied.
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Q claims that Attorney General Jeff Sessions will send a classified letter to two Supreme Court justices concerning recusal, unrecusal, and conflicts based on unclassified material.
Q claimed Jeff Sessions would send a classified letter to two Supreme Court justices; such a letter would by definition be secret, and no public record of it exists.
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Q claims that Rod Rosenstein will leave his position, presumably by being fired or otherwise departing.
Q announced Rod Rosenstein's imminent departure, at a time when the press was reporting he might be fired (September 2018). He left within the 12-month horizon: his resignation was announced on April 29, 2019 and took effect on May 11, 2019, after William Barr took office — a voluntary departure rather than the dismissal then rumoured. [1]
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Q implies that an unspecified concerning event may occur tonight and urges people attending to remain vigilant.
The call for vigilance, apparently aimed at Trump's Las Vegas rally on September 20, 2018, names no event; no notable incident was reported there.
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Q claims that Republicans will achieve a major electoral gain—a “red wave”—in the November 2018 elections.
Q announced a 'red wave' in November 2018. Republicans lost the House of Representatives (Democrats gained 41 seats), while gaining two Senate seats. [1] [2]
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Q claims that declassification of FISA materials will have a major destabilizing impact.
Q claimed FISA declassification would 'bring the house down'. The declassification ordered on September 17, 2018 was suspended on the 21st; documents released later and the inspector general's report (December 2019) did not have the announced effect. [1] [2]
-
Q claims that, in the coming weeks, one central location outside 8chan will become important for former /GA/ Redditors.
Q recommended a Voat forum to former r/greatawakening users (closed on September 12, 2018) and said a central location would be 'important'; no checkable criterion is set.
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Q claims that FISA-related materials will be declassified and that the information will become public.
Q claimed 'it will all come out' through FISA declassification. Suspended on September 21, 2018, it did not happen within the year; the inspector general published his report in December 2019 and excerpts were only declassified in 2020. [1] [2]
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Q claims that the release of the FISA materials will force Rod Rosenstein to resign or be terminated.
Q claimed the release of the FISA documents would force Rod Rosenstein to resign. No such release took place; Rosenstein resigned in April-May 2019, after William Barr took office, for unrelated reasons. [1]
-
Q claims that one or more Supreme Court justices will receive full-time security details.
Supreme Court justices are already protected by the Court's police, whose arrangements are not public; Q's announcement cannot be checked.
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Q claims that Justice K (Brett Kavanaugh) will be confirmed.
Brett Kavanaugh was confirmed by the Senate on October 6, 2018 (50-48); when Q posted, the day of Christine Blasey Ford's testimony, the outcome was still uncertain. [1]
-
Q claims that Rod Rosenstein will leave his position.
Q announced Rod Rosenstein's imminent departure, at a time when the press was reporting he might be fired (September 2018). He left within the 12-month horizon: his resignation was announced on April 29, 2019 and took effect on May 11, 2019, after William Barr took office — a voluntary departure rather than the dismissal then rumoured. [1]
-
Q signals that a presidential emergency-alert test will occur.
The national 'Presidential Alert' test, postponed on September 17 to October 3, 2018, took place on that date; it was publicly scheduled. [1] [2]
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Q claims that, if their side takes control in the November 2018 midterm elections, it will impeach Justice K.
Q attributed to Democrats a plan to impeach Justice Kavanaugh if they won Congress in November 2018. They won the House but never initiated impeachment proceedings against him. [1]
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Q claims that Google and Facebook will follow Twitter in censoring content deemed threatening to their survival or to an election.
Q claimed Google and Facebook would follow Twitter in 'blanket censorship'; neither the premise nor a criterion is defined. The platforms kept applying and tightening their moderation rules, which is not an identifiable event.
-
Q claims that Brett Kavanaugh will be confirmed as a justice.
Brett Kavanaugh was confirmed by the Senate on October 6, 2018 (50-48), after a one-week supplemental FBI inquiry. [1]
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Q claims that Rod Rosenstein will leave his position as deputy attorney general.
Q announced Rod Rosenstein's imminent departure, at a time when the press was reporting he might be fired (September 2018). He left within the 12-month horizon: his resignation was announced on April 29, 2019 and took effect on May 11, 2019, after William Barr took office — a voluntary departure rather than the dismissal then rumoured. [1]
-
Q claims that a significant, unspecified event will occur during or in connection with October.
'RED OCTOBER' names no checkable event.
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Q claims that a vote will take place during the week of October 1, 2018.
Q relays a public statement announcing a vote that week on Brett Kavanaugh's nomination; the cloture vote took place on October 5 and confirmation on October 6, 2018. [1]
-
Q claims that an event involving Jeff Sessions, related to documents, will occur tomorrow.
'Sessions tomorrow [doc related]' does not specify the event; the date matches the public deadline (October 4, 2018) of the House Judiciary Committee subpoena seeking Andrew McCabe's memos from the Justice Department.
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Q claims that the confirmation of Justice K will occur over the weekend.
Brett Kavanaugh was confirmed on Saturday, October 6, 2018; the schedule (supplemental FBI report, then a vote at the end of the week) had been announced by Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. [1]
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Q claims that an unspecified event involving Rod Rosenstein will occur the following week, and indicates that it will concern the probe rather than an update.
'[RR] next week' names no specific event. Rod Rosenstein's closed-door interview with two House committees, set for October 11, 2018, was postponed the day before and did not take place in 2018.
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Q claims that Justice K will be impeached.
Q claimed Democrats would seek to impeach Justice Kavanaugh. After they won the House (November 2018), no proceedings were opened, but in September 2019, following new New York Times reporting, several Democratic presidential candidates (Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, Beto O'Rourke, Julián Castro) publicly called for his impeachment. [1] [2]
-
Q suggests that an unspecified significant event or development will occur during the following week.
'[BOOM WEEK]', below Ronald Reagan quotes, names no checkable event for the week after October 7, 2018.
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Q claims that Democrats will pursue impeachment of Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, contingent on taking control of the Senate.
Q claimed Democrats would seek to impeach Justice Kavanaugh. After they won the House (November 2018), no proceedings were opened, but in September 2019, following new New York Times reporting, several Democratic presidential candidates (Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, Beto O'Rourke, Julián Castro) publicly called for his impeachment. [1] [2]
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Q claims that Rod Rosenstein will testify before the U.S. House as the next development.
Q announced Rod Rosenstein's House testimony as the next step. The interview set for October 11, 2018 was postponed the day before and did not happen before he left in May 2019; he only testified publicly in June 2020, before the Senate Judiciary Committee. [1] [2]
-
Q claims that an announcement will be made that night concerning an increase in the ethanol concentration of gasoline.
Trump announced on the evening of October 9, 2018, at a rally in Council Bluffs, Iowa, the lifting of the summer ban on E15 gasoline; the White House had announced the measure earlier that day, as reported by the article Q linked. [1] [2]
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Q claims that Bruce Ohr will be terminated imminently.
Q repeated that Bruce Ohr's termination was 'imminent'. He remained at the Justice Department past the horizon and retired on September 30, 2020, during a disciplinary review; he was not charged. [1] [2]
-
Q claims that the U.S. president will meet with Vladimir Putin on November 11, 2018.
A Trump-Putin meeting in Paris on November 11, 2018 had been announced in late October by John Bolton. In the end there was no formal meeting, at France's request, but the two leaders spoke briefly at the Armistice centenary lunch. [1]
-
Q claims that the ongoing House and Senate investigations will be terminated around the midterm elections.
The post ascribes to the Mueller investigation an alleged aim of 'stalling' until the midterms to end congressional investigations: this is a claim about intent, not the announcement of a checkable event.
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Q claims that organized groups, allegedly including ANTIFA or other organizations, will conduct a coordinated push involving voter intimidation or disruption at 29 or more battleground voting locations.
Q claimed ANTIFA or other groups would mount a coordinated push at 29+ key polling locations during the 6 November 2018 election. Election Day reporting described machine failures, long lines and isolated incidents, but no coordinated operation of this kind. [1] [2]
-
Q claims that high-priority targets will be acted against or engaged on November 5 or 6, 2018.
'High priority targets today/tomorrow' names no identifiable target or action; the context points rather to meme campaigns.
-
Q claims that the political left will have no chance in the upcoming electoral contest.
Q claimed 'the LEFT has no chance' in the midterms. On 6 November 2018 Democrats gained about forty seats and won control of the House of Representatives, while Republicans kept the Senate. [1]
-
Q claims that oversight will shift from the House to the Senate Judiciary Committee.
Q announced a shift of oversight to the Senate Judiciary Committee. Its chairman Lindsey Graham announced a review of the FISA applications targeting the Trump campaign on 25 March 2019 and heard Inspector General Horowitz on 11 December 2019; House Democrats nonetheless kept and expanded their own investigations. [1] [2]
-
Q claims that there will be no recusal in the matter under discussion, apparently referring to acting Attorney General Matthew Whitaker's recusal from the Russia investigation.
Q claimed Matthew Whitaker would not recuse himself from overseeing the Russia investigation. On 20 December 2018 the Justice Department said he would not recuse, despite an ethics official describing it as a close call. [1] [2]
-
Q claims that the White House’s public image will remain stable during the following week.
'WH optics must remain stable' is a vague directive with no criterion that could be checked.
-
Q claims that selected classified documents, including classified documents 1–4, will become public.
Q claimed Whitaker had approved the release of classified documents '1-4' (the Carter Page FISA applications). Trump had paused his declassification order on 21 September 2018, handing it to the inspector general; the pages in question were not made public in the following twelve months (only a redacted version had been released in July 2018). [1] [2]
-
Q claims that an unspecified event related to the referenced whistleblower disclosure will occur on Monday.
'MONDAY' announces no specific event; the post does not say what was supposed to happen.
-
Q claims that Robert Mueller will face criminal charges related to Uranium One (U1).
Q claimed Robert Mueller would face charges over Uranium One. Mueller was never charged; he delivered his report in March 2019 and testified before Congress in July 2019. [1]
-
Q claims that a state funeral for George H. W. Bush will occur the following week.
George H. W. Bush died on 30 November 2018; his state funeral was held in Washington on 5 December 2018. It had already been announced when Q posted on 1 December. [1]
-
Q claims that the public will soon learn that the DOJ, FBI, and other U.S. and foreign entities have been working behind the scenes on a major criminal investigation.
The announcement of 'one of the largest criminal investigations in modern day history' names no identifiable investigation, person or date.
-
Q claims that FBI official Peter Strzok will depart or has departed the bureau, such that no high-ranking FBI officials involved in the two investigations will remain.
Q relays a Wall Street Journal article (4 December 2018): after Bill Priestap's announced departure, no senior FBI official involved in the 2016 investigations would remain. Priestap retired in early 2019. Already public, hence trivial; the FBI described it as an ordinary retirement. [1] [2]
-
Q claims that the Federal Reserve will begin a steep increase in interest rates in March 2019, allegedly with the aim of damaging the economy before the 2020 presidential election.
Q referred to a 'steep' Federal Reserve rate increase starting March 2019. Instead the Fed paused its hikes in January 2019, then cut rates on 31 July 2019 and again in September and October 2019. [1] [2]
-
Q claims that President Trump will use the U.S. military to build a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border if congressional leaders Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer do not agree to border-wall funding.
Trump himself had threatened on 11 December 2018 to have the military build the wall. On 15 February 2019 he declared a national emergency allowing Pentagon funds to be redirected to barrier construction, but the work went to contractors rather than troops. [1]
-
Q claims that a public hearing involving Clinton whistleblowers will reveal explosive information.
The already-scheduled House Oversight hearing on the Clinton Foundation took place on 13 December 2018. The two 'whistleblowers' declined to hand over the documents they cited, and no revelation leading to any legal action came out of it. [1] [2]
-
Q claims that Rod Rosenstein will leave his position.
Q bid farewell to Rod Rosenstein. The deputy attorney general submitted his resignation on 29 April 2019, effective 11 May 2019, after the Mueller report was delivered; his coming departure had been reported in January 2019. [1]
-
Q claims that voter fraud will not be exposed before January 2019.
Q's 'No' answers a vague question ('will voter fraud be exposed before January?') without naming any case. The one major fraud case of that period, absentee-ballot fraud in North Carolina's 9th district on behalf of a Republican candidate, is unrelated to Q's allegations.
-
Q claims that a voter-ID initiative will be pushed in 2019, based on verifiable intelligence concerning fraud.
'2019 push Voter ID' specifies neither the actor nor the form; no identifiable federal initiative allows a ruling.
-
Q claims that the U.S. Senate will investigate matters concerning 2019.
'Senate to investigate 2019' is cryptic; the context mentions Google's financial filings, with no identifiable object of investigation.
-
Q claims that voter fraud in California will eventually be brought to light.
Q claimed voter fraud in California would be brought to light. No large-scale fraud was established in California's 2018 elections; election officials and fact-checkers found no widespread cases. [1]
-
Q claims that William Barr will be installed as Attorney General.
William Barr, nominated in December 2018, was confirmed by the Senate and sworn in on 14 February 2019. The confirmation vote was already scheduled when Q posted on 9 February. [1]
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Q claims that there will be a meeting with North Korea concerning a denuclearization plan or process, followed by sanctions relief and humanitarian aid.
The Trump-Kim summit in Hanoi, announced on 5 February 2019, took place on 27-28 February 2019 but ended without agreement: no denuclearisation plan or sanctions relief followed. [1] [2]
-
Q claims that Barr and Matthew Whitaker will review the relevant classified notes and reservations concerning declassification.
A joint review by Barr and Whitaker of Rosenstein's internal notes would be an internal, non-public departmental matter.
-
Q claims that Barr and Whitaker will remove the declassification review assignment from the Office of Inspector General.
Withdrawing a review assignment from the inspector general would be an internal departmental decision; no public source allows it to be checked.
-
Q claims that Barr will execute the President's declassification order and provide House committee members with supplemental documentation in a classified setting.
On 23 May 2019 Trump delegated to Barr the authority to declassify material on the origins of the Russia investigation, but Barr did not release the announced FISA material within the year; the inspector general's report of 9 December 2019 described its contents. [1] [2]
-
Q claims that Matthew Whitaker will remain on the senior staff of the Department of Justice.
Q claimed Matthew Whitaker would remain on senior DOJ staff. After Barr took office he briefly served as a counselor in the associate attorney general's office, then left the department on 2 March 2019. [1] [2]
-
Q claims that Barr will meet with John Huber and the Office of Inspector General.
A meeting between Barr, prosecutor John Huber and the inspector general would be an internal departmental matter with no checkable public object.
-
Q claims that House Democrats will threaten to subpoena Barr and Whitaker over declassification, the special counsel report, and Huber-related matters.
The House Judiciary Committee had authorised a subpoena for Whitaker on 7 February 2019, two days before the post; it later subpoenaed the full Mueller report and voted on 8 May 2019 to hold Barr in contempt of Congress. The Whitaker part had therefore already happened. [1] [2]
-
Q claims that Adam Schiff will leak classified information again.
The post is an accusation aimed at Adam Schiff about alleged past leaks ('the next time you…'), not the announcement of an event.
-
Q indicates that Donald Trump will sign the border-security bill and declare a national emergency at the U.S.-Mexico border.
Mitch McConnell had announced on 14 February 2019, in the article Q linked, that Trump would sign the spending bill and declare a national emergency; Trump did so on 15 February 2019. [1]
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Q claims that Bill and Hillary Clinton’s public health will begin to deteriorate rapidly.
Q claimed Bill and Hillary Clinton's 'public' health would rapidly deteriorate. In the following twelve months neither had any notable publicly reported health problem; both continued public activities (books, tours, the 2020 campaign). [1] [2]
-
Q claims that attempts to carry out false-flag operations may occur in order to change the public narrative.
Possible 'false flag attempts' in the next ten days name no identifiable event; labelling any real event a 'false flag' would be a matter of interpretation.
-
Q claims that a multi-day news-coverage event may occur and force a pause in other news coverage.
A 'multiple day coverage event' is common enough that no ten-day window could confirm or refute the announcement.
-
Q claims that investigations by SDNY, AS, and MW intended to delay or prevent the release of the documents will fail.
The claim rests on Q's own premise that investigations by SDNY, Adam Schiff and Maxine Waters aimed to block a declassification; that supposed aim cannot be checked and 'failure' has no criterion.
-
Q claims that Robert Mueller will deliver his report to the Department of Justice before the Office of the Inspector General releases its next installment.
Mueller delivered his report to the Justice Department on 22 March 2019, before the inspector general's next report on the Russia inquiry (the FISA report, 9 December 2019). The Mueller report was then widely reported to be imminent. [1] [2]
-
Q claims that major real-world events will begin directly after the Mueller investigation, surpassing the spectacle of the Super Bowl.
'The fun begins directly after' and the Super Bowl comparison name no checkable event.
-
Q claims that LL will be offered a Supreme Court seat and that POTUS will back or confirm the offer on April 15, 2019.
Q refers back to its own earlier posts about an alleged Supreme Court seat offered to Loretta Lynch; the dates cited concern the past and the post announces no future event.
-
Q claims that major, unspecified events will occur within the next 21 days.
'BIG happenings within the next 21 days' names no specific event. The Mueller report was delivered on 22 March 2019, after that window.
-
Q claims that declassification will reveal the other data or evidentiary anchors provided to the FISC to obtain the surveillance warrant.
Q suggested declassification would reveal other 'anchors', worse than the dossier, given to the FISA court. The inspector general's report of 9 December 2019 found Christopher Steele's reporting played a 'central and essential' role in the applications and identified 17 errors or omissions; it did not reveal any other hidden source. [1]
-
Q claims that Democrats will steal the 2020 U.S. elections.
Q accused Democrats of preparing to 'steal' the 2020 election. Federal election authorities and courts found no fraud that could have changed the outcome of the 3 November 2020 election; lawsuits claiming otherwise were dismissed. [1] [2]
-
Q claims or implies that Kim Foxx will leave her position or otherwise be removed from office.
The #GoodbyeFoxx hashtag implied the departure of Cook County State's Attorney Kim Foxx. She stayed in office, won the March 2020 primary and was re-elected in November 2020; she left office at the end of 2024 without seeking another term. [1]
-
Q endorses the claim that Christopher Steele will probably be indicted in connection with the dossier and FISA applications.
Q endorsed a post predicting Christopher Steele would be indicted over the dossier and FISA applications. Steele was never charged in the United States. [1]
-
Q claims that the U.S. Department of Justice will prosecute Jussie Smollett in connection with the dropped charges.
Q claimed the federal Justice Department would prosecute Jussie Smollett. No federal prosecution took place; however a state special prosecutor, Dan Webb, re-indicted him on 11 February 2020 and he was convicted in December 2021 (a conviction overturned in 2024 by the Illinois Supreme Court). [1]
-
Q claims that the FBI and Department of Justice will review the Jussie Smollett case in Chicago.
Q quoted a 28 March 2019 Trump tweet saying the FBI and DOJ would review the Smollett case. Federal officials confirmed such a review, which led to no federal action. [1]
-
Q claims that a bigger story related to the referenced figures and leak investigations will be discovered within one year.
'Bigger story yet to be discovered' names no identifiable fact.
-
Q claims that a significant, unspecified event will occur during the coming week.
'BOOM week ahead' announces no identifiable event.
-
Q claims that the remaining classified FISA materials will be declassified by May 24, 2019.
On 23 May 2019 Trump delegated to William Barr the authority to declassify material on the origins of the Russia investigation, but the still-classified FISA material was not released on 24 May or in the following months. [1]
-
Q claims that it will be revealed that Jeff Sessions began the investigation into Jeffrey Epstein.
Q claimed it would be revealed that Jeff Sessions began the Jeffrey Epstein investigation. No such revelation occurred; the Manhattan federal prosecution (arrest on 6 July 2019) was generally linked to the Miami Herald's November 2018 investigation. [1] [2]
-
Q claims that a population of placeholders will begin in August 2019.
'Placeholder population start Aug 2019' refers to a Q-specific notion (supposed sealed indictments) with no checkable object.
-
Q claims that the coming week will be notable or memorable due to unspecified real-world events.
'A week to remember' announces no identifiable event.
-
Q claims that federal charges will be brought against Jussie Smollett.
Q hinted federal charges were coming against Jussie Smollett. No federal charges were ever filed; he was re-indicted on 11 February 2020, but by an Illinois state special prosecutor. [1]
-
Q claims that 2019 will be a year of a major, unspecified event or development described as a “boomerang.”
'2019 - YEAR OF THE BOOMERANG' announces a backlash against Q's opponents in 2019: a vague announcement of a future outcome (a vague prediction under revision 2 of the guidelines), with no identifiable object that would allow checking it.
-
Q endorses or repeats the prediction that the Director of National Intelligence, Dan Coats, will be replaced or leave office next week.
Q linked, without comment, to a post citing journalist John Solomon (Dan Coats leaving the following week). Trump announced on 28 July 2019 that Coats would leave as Director of National Intelligence on 15 August; the departure had been rumoured for months. [1] [2]
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Q endorses or repeats the prediction that documents will be declassified next week.
The relayed post announced a declassification of documents the following week (late July - early August 2019). No notable declassification of Russia-investigation documents took place in those days; the inspector general's report only came out on 9 December 2019. [1]
-
Q endorses or repeats the prediction that there will be news about Durham next week.
'Durham news' is too vague to check: John Durham's review was already the subject of regular reporting in summer 2019.
-
Q claims that news concerning the alleged declassification or disclosure of exculpatory FISA-surveillance evidence will emerge during this week.
Q urged followers to 'watch the news this week' regarding exculpatory FISA-related evidence. No such declassification occurred in late July - early August 2019; the inspector general's report and Papadopoulos-related material only came out in December 2019 and in 2020. [1]
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Q claims that planned and coordinated attacks, characterized as a smear campaign, will be directed at William Barr.
William Barr faced sharp criticism in the following months (notably in February 2020 over the Roger Stone case), but describing it as a 'planned/coordinated smear campaign' is Q's own characterisation and cannot be checked.
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Q claims that Edward Snowden will return home in 2020.
Q announced Edward Snowden's 'homecoming' to the United States in 2020 (#HOMECOMING2020). Snowden stayed in Russia: he was granted permanent residency there in October 2020 and Russian citizenship in September 2022. [1] [2]
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Q claims that Democrats will interfere in the 2020 election.
Q labelled the then-ongoing impeachment as Democratic 'election interference' for 2020; this is a polemical characterisation of a present event, not a checkable forecast.
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Q claims that two-thirds of the Senate will not vote to convict the president in the impeachment proceedings.
The Senate acquitted Donald Trump on both articles on 5 February 2020 (52-48 and 53-47), far short of the two-thirds required. With a 53-seat Republican majority, this outcome was widely expected when Q posted. [1]
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Q claims that it will be concluded that surveillance related to the president lacked sufficient predication to establish probable cause.
Q commented on the Justice Department's admission (made public on 23 January 2020) that at least the last two FISA warrants on Carter Page lacked probable cause, and claimed the same conclusion would be reached for 'all' Trump-related surveillance. No such conclusion was issued within the year: the Inspector General's December 2019 report had found the opening of Crossfire Hurricane adequately predicated. [1] [2]
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Q claims that the truth about the DNC breach, alleged election interference, and Hillary Clinton's private server/email investigation will be made public.
'The truth will be made public': a formula with no checkable object or deadline.
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Q claims that Bernie Sanders will drop out of the presidential race.
Bernie Sanders announced he was suspending his campaign on 8 April 2020 around 11:45 a.m. ET; Q's post, made the same day around 4:28 p.m., came after the announcement and is therefore not a prediction. [1] [2]
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Q claims that the House of Representatives will push to remove William Barr from office.
On 30 June 2020 Rep. Steve Cohen filed a resolution (H.Res. 1032, 35 co-sponsors) calling for an impeachment inquiry into William Barr, but the Democratic leadership (Pelosi, Nadler) ruled impeachment out and the House never voted. Barr resigned of his own accord in December 2020. [1] [2] [3]
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Q claims that the House of Representatives will open investigations concerning William Barr and John Durham.
The House Judiciary Committee held a hearing on 24 June 2020 on the alleged 'politicisation' of the Justice Department under Barr (Stone and Flynn cases) and questioned Barr on 28 July 2020; no congressional investigation specifically targeting the Durham inquiry was opened within the year. [1] [2]
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Q claims that pro-President accounts will face an impending blackout or removal.
Q announced a 'removal [blackout]' of pro-Trump accounts tied to the election. Twitter suspended Donald Trump's personal account on 8 January 2021 and more than 70,000 QAnon-linked accounts in the following days, citing incitement risks after the Capitol attack; this was not a general blackout of pro-president accounts. [1] [2]
-
Q claims that the 2020 election will bring about or contribute to a worldwide awakening.
The 'World Awakening' tied to the 2020 election has no measurable object.
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Q claims that the Mueller investigation was intended to stall until the midterm elections, after which ongoing House and Senate investigations would be terminated.
Q asserted what the Mueller investigation (closed in March 2019) was supposedly 'designed' for; this is an interpretation of the past, not a prediction.
-
Q claims that the Mueller investigation was intended to fuel impeachment or removal proceedings against the president.
A claim about the purpose attributed to the Mueller investigation, which closed in 2019; the first impeachment had already taken place. Not a prediction.
-
Q claims that the Mueller investigation was intended to mobilize the Democratic Party for a victory in the midterm elections.
A claim about the purpose attributed to the Mueller investigation regarding the 2018 midterms, already past when Q posted. Not a prediction.
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Q claims that Gang of Eight intelligence material will be declassified, at which point Adam Schiff’s role will become critical.
The 'Gang of Eight' material (classified briefings to congressional leaders) is undefined and was not declassified as such; only the House Intelligence Committee's interview transcripts were released on 7 May 2020. Adam Schiff's 'critical' role is not checkable.
-
Q states that May 1, 2020, will be observed as Law Day, U.S.A., with Americans and relevant institutions urged to reflect on the rule of law and display the U.S. flag.
Q quoted the already-issued presidential proclamation making 1 May 2020 'Law Day'; this is not a prediction.
-
Q claims that a significant, unspecified event will occur during the coming week.
'BOOM WEEK AHEAD' identifies no checkable event.
-
Q claims that the approximately $3 trillion coronavirus relief bill will never become law.
Q approvingly quotes Kevin McCarthy saying the $3 trillion bill would 'never become law'. The HEROES Act, passed by the House on 15 May 2020, was never taken up by the Senate. Already public, hence trivial. [1]
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Q claims that the fear and compliance tactics associated with vote-by-mail and stay-at-home measures will end by Election Day.
Q announced that stay-at-home and vote-by-mail 'fear' tactics would end the day after the election. Public-health restrictions continued after 3 November 2020 and were even tightened during the winter wave (California's regional stay-at-home order of 3 December 2020). [1] [2]
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Q claims that MSNBC and affiliated media will incite and promote division before the 2020 U.S. election unless Democrats regain congressional control.
A judgement on a TV network's conduct ('will incite division') with no checkable criterion.
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Q claims that the president’s Twitter account will be removed.
In a list framed as warning signs, Q mentioned 'POTUS twitter removal'. Twitter permanently suspended Donald Trump's personal account on 8 January 2021, citing a risk of incitement after the Capitol attack, not within the coup scenario Q described. [1] [2]
-
Q claims that a communications blackout will occur across the continental United States.
No general communications blackout across the continental United States occurred in the year after the post. [1] [2]
-
Q claims that Nancy Pelosi or Mike Pence will be moved.
'CLAS movement PELOSI or PENCE' refers to an undefined classified movement; nothing checkable.
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Q claims that military assets, including the 10th Mountain Division and 1st Marine Division, will be moved to central locations under the pretext of controlling citizen riots.
About 1,600 active-duty troops (82nd Airborne from Fort Bragg, military police from Fort Drum, home of the 10th Mountain Division) had already been staged around Washington on 1-2 June 2020, before the post; they were not deployed into the city and began leaving on 4-5 June. [1] [2]
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Q suggests that Democrats will push for voting by mail when electronic election cheating is no longer possible.
A rhetorical question; by June 2020, expanding vote-by-mail was already at the centre of public debate. Not a prediction.
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Q claims that COVID-19 lockdowns will wipe out the president’s economic gains.
Q described effects attributed to lockdowns already in force; the spring 2020 economic contraction was already under way and known. Not a prediction.
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Q claims that COVID-19 lockdowns will wipe out the president’s unemployment gains.
By June 2020 the rise in unemployment (14.7% in April, 13.3% in May) had already been published; Q described an existing situation.
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Q claims that such unrest will be used to provoke President Trump into deploying the military and generate footage of a peaceful protester being shot or the White House perimeter being breached.
Q attributed to opponents a plan to bait Trump into using the military; the alleged intent is not checkable. Trump did not invoke the Insurrection Act in 2020.
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Q claims that a second COVID-19 wave will give Democratic mayors and governors an opportunity to impose new restrictions, limit economic recovery, and sustain the mail-in-voting narrative.
A second wave did lead to new restrictions (California closures in July 2020, regional order in December 2020), imposed by governors of both parties; the electoral motive Q attributed to them is unsupported. [1] [2]
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Q claims that grand-jury proceedings will be halted because of close-proximity COVID restrictions.
Many federal grand juries had already been suspended in March 2020 because of the pandemic; Q described an existing situation, reacting to William Barr's remarks that day.
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Q claims that witnesses called in pending investigations, including the Durham investigation, will be prevented from traveling by invoking COVID-19 safety concerns.
Q relayed William Barr's 21 June 2020 explanation that the pandemic was slowing the Durham inquiry; this is a comment on the present.
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Q claims that COVID-19 lockdowns will prevent or weaken the president’s rallies and gatherings.
Trump's rallies had been suspended since March 2020 and had just resumed (Tulsa, 20 June 2020); Q described an existing situation.
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Q claims that lockdown policies will close churches and restrict person-to-person interaction.
Restrictions on places of worship had been in force since March 2020; Q described an existing situation.
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Q claims that COVID-related policies will increase the reported death toll by sending COVID-positive seniors into care facilities and combining pneumonia and influenza deaths with COVID deaths.
Q accused Democratic governors over measures already taken (nursing-home guidance in spring 2020); this is an accusation about the present, not a prediction.
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Q claims that Biden will hide from public appearances to avoid embarrassment.
Joe Biden had already been campaigning mostly from home since March 2020; Q attributed an intent to an existing situation.
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Q claims that Democratic-controlled states will flood voters’ doorsteps with mail-in ballots.
For the November 2020 election, California, Nevada, New Jersey, Vermont and Washington D.C. mailed a ballot to every registered voter; California had already announced this in May 2020. No significant fraud resulted. [1] [2]
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Q claims that unrest associated with the Black Lives Matter campaign will be released in controlled cities and designated safe zones, with arrested people released through mayoral or gubernatorial coordination.
Q alleged secret coordination by mayors and governors around the protests; this supposed plan is not checkable (Seattle's 'autonomous zone' had existed since 8 June 2020).
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Q claims that Antifa will be inserted into designated safe zones, producing violent unrest and attempts to breach the White House or other central locations.
Q described an alleged plan to insert 'Antifa' into controlled zones; the alleged intent is not checkable, and the protests near the White House in late May 2020 had already taken place.
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Q claims that some commanding officers may provide classified information that does not reflect the positions of the U.S. president or the U.S. attorney general.
An allusion to undefined classified information ('CLAS 1-99'); nothing checkable.
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Q claims that the COVID-19 narrative will end one day after Election Day.
Q claimed the Covid-19 'narrative' would end the day after the election. The pandemic and its coverage continued: a record winter wave and the start of vaccination in December 2020. [1]
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Q claims that attempts at massive cyberattacks will occur on November 4, 2020.
No massive cyberattack was reported on 4 November 2020; on 12 November 2020 the CISA-led coordinating council called the election 'the most secure in American history', with no system compromised. [1]
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Q claims that Democratic political actors will use COVID-19 infection rates to justify restricting public activity through November 3, 2020.
Public-health restrictions did remain in place through 3 November 2020, imposed by governors of both parties, but they did not stop after the election, contrary to Q's scenario; the alleged coordination is unsupported. [1] [2]
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Q claims that the Democratic convention will be delayed as part of a strategic effort to replace or take over the party’s nominee after the convention.
The postponement of the Democratic convention (from July to 17-20 August 2020) had been announced on 2 April 2020; Joe Biden was nominated there and remained the candidate through the election, with no replacement. [1] [2]
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Q claims that the Biden campaign will find an excuse or reason to terminate the debates.
The second debate (15 October 2020) was cancelled on 9 October by the Commission after Donald Trump refused a virtual format, not at the Biden campaign's initiative; the debates of 29 September and 22 October took place. [1] [2]
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Q claims that the Biden campaign will be provided with the debate questions in advance.
No evidence ever established that the Biden campaign received the questions in advance for the 2020 debates; such allegations were debunked by fact-checkers. [1] [2]
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Q claims that the Biden campaign will be provided with the debate questions in advance and assistance through a special communication device.
Claims that Joe Biden wore an earpiece or wire during the 29 September 2020 debate were debunked by fact-checkers (a shirt crease, a rosary on his wrist). [1] [2]
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Q suggests that notable real-world events will unfold during September 14–18 and September 21–25, 2020, and should be tracked.
Urging readers to 'track & follow events' over two weeks of September 2020 announces no identifiable event.
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Q claims that actors will use mass mail-in-ballot distribution and related legal challenges to rig or delay the outcome of the 2020 U.S. presidential election after an election-night defeat.
Q presented mail-in voting as a way to 'rig' the 2020 election. Election officials, CISA and the courts (more than 60 lawsuits dismissed) found no fraud capable of changing the outcome. [1] [2]
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Q claims that a Biden victory would result in the country healing and political violence ending.
Q attributed a talking point to opponents ('the country will heal with a Biden victory'); this is not a prediction by Q.
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Q claims that a trial involving Ghislaine Maxwell will take place on July 12, 2021.
The 12 July 2021 date had already been set by Judge Alison Nathan in July 2020. The trial was postponed in May 2021 and opened on 29 November 2021; Ghislaine Maxwell was convicted on 29 December 2021. [1] [2]
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Q claims that an unspecified significant event will occur during October 2020.
'RED OCTOBER' identifies no checkable event.
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Q claims that a significant event or development will occur during October 2020, characterized as “Red October.”
'RED OCTOBER', posted in reply to a Trump tweet, identifies no checkable event.
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Q suggests that the president will release or disclose the relevant GSA v. FBI material without redactions on October 7, 2020.
Q commented on Donald Trump's 6 October 2020 tweet announcing the 'no redactions' declassification of Russia-inquiry documents; this is a comment on that day's event.
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Q claims that the cited New York executive order will remain in effect until November 3, 2020.
Q quoted a New York governor's executive order stating its own duration; this is not a prediction.
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Q projects that total deaths from all causes in the United States in 2020 will be approximately 2,838,000.
Q extrapolated about 2,838,000 all-cause deaths for 2020, a level similar to 2019. Final CDC data record 3,383,729 deaths in 2020, a record increase of about 529,000 over 2019, mainly due to Covid-19. [1]
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Q suggests that Hunter Biden will be unanimously convicted by a jury.
Q referred to the case of Devon Archer, a former Hunter Biden business partner: convicted by a jury in 2018, verdict set aside by Judge Abrams, then reinstated on appeal on 8 October 2020. These are past events; Hunter Biden was not a defendant in that case.
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Q suggests that Judge Ronnie Abrams will overturn Hunter Biden’s conviction.
It was Devon Archer's verdict, not Hunter Biden's, that Judge Ronnie Abrams had set aside in 2018; Q described a past event.
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Q suggests that a federal appeals court will reinstate Hunter Biden’s conviction after it is overturned.
The Second Circuit had reinstated Devon Archer's conviction on 8 October 2020, ten days before the post; Q described a past event.
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Q claims that unspecified explosive or otherwise significant events (“booms”) will occur tomorrow.
'BOOMS EN_ROUTE TOMORROW' identifies no checkable event.
The horoscope test
Q claimed the news confirmed his posts ("Future proves past"). But a vague text "fits" almost anything, the Barnum effect known from horoscopes. In the test, a drop and two lists of news items, the real period and a randomly drawn one, are shown blind, with no date at all, and a language model must say which one the drop refers to.
With the news of the 7 days before the drop, the model picks the real period in 75% of decided cases. With the 30 days after, in 68%. It sees no specific link in 76% of the "future" comparisons, and 6% of the randomly drawn lists still get a score of at least 5 out of 10.
In 76% of the "future" comparisons the model finds no specific link between the drop and the news. When it does find one, the real period wins, for the past as for the future, and the two rates do not differ significantly (Fisher's exact test, p = 0.44). The "future" signal is not enough to conclude that the drops anticipate events. It concerns only a minority of comparisons, randomly drawn periods "match" too, and it is compatible with stories simply continuing from one week to the next, a hypothesis this test does not measure. The examples below show how a random period can seem to "match", either because the drop is vague enough to fit an event years later, or because it mentions an earlier fact that appears in the list.
As a robustness check, a second model (gpt-6.1-sol, best F1 in the evaluation on our reference set) answered the same questions for 100 drops. It is far more sceptical. It sees no specific link in 95 of the 100 "future" comparisons, against 70 for the main model on the same drops, and decides only 5 times (4 in favour of the real period). The two models make the same choice in 75% of cases, but their agreement beyond chance is modest (Cohen's kappa 0.23), so the few "matches" depend on the reader. This is a limit of the measurement rather than further evidence, and it rules out reading them as recognisable foresight.
| Comparisons | Real period | Random period | Neither | Real period (decided cases) | 95% CI | p | Mean score, real | Mean score, random | Random scored ≥ 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Past (7 days before) | 255 | 45 | 15 | 195 | 75% | 63%–84% | < 0.001 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 4% |
| Future (30 days after) | 300 | 48 | 23 | 229 | 68% | 56%–77% | 0.004 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 6% |
Link scores, "future" comparisons
Score from 0 (no specific link) to 10 (unambiguous reference), for the real period and for the random period.
When chance "confirms" Q: random lists judged related (model's justification)
- drop #2352, score 9/10.
The message explicitly invokes a U.S. Supreme Court justice and Supreme Court appointments, specifically anticipating the vacancy created by Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s death.
- drop #3045, score 9/10.
The message specifically discusses the FBI chain of command and Strzok's firing, matching List A item 25; List B has no comparably specific event.
- drop #256, score 8/10.
The explicit dates match A items 25, 27, and 28; all concern China, Russia, and Iraq, fitting the map/Asia and “red” clues.
- drop #1806, score 8/10.
The message explicitly connects Amazon with a government agency; item 37 specifically reports Amazon Prime Air receiving FAA approval.
- drop #2578, score 8/10.
“OIG” and references to document handling, leaks, and criminal-investigation safeguards specifically align with the FBI Inspector General report criticizing Comey’s document leaks.
Method
300 randomly drawn drops of at least 15 words (stratified by year, Nov 2017 – Nov 2020) are compared with US-related news items from Wikipedia's "Current events" portal, at most 40 per list and as many in each list. The random period lies more than six months from the drop, list order is randomised, and the model is gpt-5.6-luna with sceptical instructions (vague wording does not count). Binomial test against 50% among decided cases. If the drops foretold the future, the real "future" period would be chosen well over half the time. But news continues from week to week, so a rate above 50% may also reflect that continuity, hence the comparison with the past.
Recycled prophecies
17 subjects (same event type, same actor) are announced in at least 3 different months and cover 74 predictions, i.e. 9% of all predictions. In 7 of these subjects, Q announces the event again after an earlier announcement was checked as unfulfilled (8 announcements in all).
The most frequently announced subjects
Each dot is a prediction. Hover over it to see the drop number.
| Subject | Predictions | Months | First | Last | After a failure | Checked verdicts | Typical wording (paraphrase) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resignation — Rod Rosenstein | 9 | 3 | Jun 13, 2018 | Dec 12, 2018 | 0 | Came true 5, Did not happen 2 | Q claims that Rod Rosenstein will leave his position. |
| Disclosure — Department of Justice | 8 | 6 | Feb 16, 2018 | Feb 20, 2019 | 1 | Did not happen 4, Came true 2, Unverifiable 2 | Q claims that the Justice Department inspector general will report that the FBI and DOJ broke the law during the Clinton email investigation. |
| Resignation — Department of Justice | 8 | 6 | Aug 19, 2018 | Apr 10, 2020 | 2 | Came true 2, Did not happen 1 | Q claims that additional departures from the U.S. Department of Justice will occur soon. |
| Disclosure — Barack Obama | 7 | 7 | Dec 5, 2017 | Feb 18, 2019 | 1 | Did not happen 3, Partly 1 | Q claims that information demonstrating alleged criminal and corrupt abuses of power by the Obama administration, allegedly involving domestic and foreign dignitaries, will become public. |
| Disclosure — Jeff Sessions | 6 | 6 | Jan 21, 2018 | Jul 8, 2019 | 1 | Did not happen 2, Unverifiable 2, Not a prediction 1, Partly 1 | Q claims that an event involving Jeff Sessions, related to documents, will occur tomorrow. |
| Election — Democratic Party | 6 | 6 | Aug 7, 2018 | Jul 31, 2020 | 0 | Not a prediction 4, Did not happen 2 | Q claims that Democrats will steal the 2020 U.S. elections. |
| Disclosure — FBI | 5 | 4 | May 17, 2018 | Oct 6, 2020 | 1 | Did not happen 2, Came true 1, Not a prediction 1, Unverifiable 1 | Q claims that the Justice Department inspector general will report that the FBI and DOJ broke the law during the Clinton email investigation. |
| Military action — Donald Trump | 4 | 4 | Nov 1, 2017 | Jun 21, 2020 | 0 | Partly 1, Unverifiable 1 | Q claims that such unrest will be used to provoke President Trump into deploying the military and generate footage of a peaceful protester being shot or the White House perimeter being breached. |
| Disclosure — Russia | 4 | 3 | Mar 6, 2018 | Feb 7, 2020 | 1 | Unverifiable 2, Did not happen 1 | Q claims that information will be released, after which the Russia investigation will end and the origins of the narrative will be shown to be corrupt. |
| Military action — Iran | 4 | 3 | Mar 8, 2018 | Jun 27, 2018 | 0 | — | Q claims that Iran will be the next target of an unspecified future action or event. |
| Resignation — House of Representatives | 4 | 3 | Apr 25, 2018 | Apr 10, 2020 | 0 | Not a prediction 1, Partly 1 | Q indicates that personnel in the House of Representatives will be removed. |
| Resignation — FBI | 4 | 4 | Aug 19, 2018 | Apr 10, 2020 | 0 | Came true 1 | Q suggests that departures or resignations will occur within the FBI. |
| Court ruling — US Senate | 4 | 3 | Sep 27, 2018 | Apr 28, 2020 | 0 | Came true 3, Not a prediction 1 | Q claims that Justice K (Brett Kavanaugh) will be confirmed. |
| Disclosure — Donald Trump | 3 | 3 | Jan 21, 2018 | Oct 6, 2020 | 1 | Not a prediction 1, Did not happen 1 | Q conveys the claim that investigators will uncover more information about the alleged effort to remove the president and will then take action based on those findings. |
| Disclosure — Hillary Clinton | 3 | 3 | Feb 22, 2018 | Feb 7, 2020 | 0 | Unverifiable 1 | Q claims that the referenced information concerning China, intelligence sales, Hillary Clinton's email server, missing emails, and CrowdStrike will be made public soon. |
| Resignation — US Senate | 3 | 3 | Jul 1, 2018 | Apr 10, 2020 | 0 | — | Q indicates that personnel in the Senate will be removed. |
| Declassification — Adam Schiff | 3 | 3 | Feb 19, 2019 | Apr 28, 2020 | 0 | Unverifiable 2 | Q claims that Gang of Eight intelligence material will be declassified and become critical to the situation. |
Method
Subject = event type and dictionary actor assigned by the automatic annotation. "United States" and the "other" type are excluded. A failure counts from the horizon of the prediction checked as unfulfilled (stated deadline, otherwise 12 months), so the count of announcements after a failure is conservative.
"Future proves past": does Q quote himself as proof?
Q references one of his own drops 387 times. 97% of these references happen the same day, mostly within the hour, which makes them additions or corrections, not proof after the fact. Only 11 references point to a drop posted at least a day earlier, and 36% of them target a drop that contained a prediction. The phrase "Future proves past" appears in 38 drops, but only 2 times together with a reference to a Q drop.
Delay between a drop and the Q drop it cites
Only board references (>>number) are counted. Q also reposted old drops as screenshots, which the corpus cannot detect, so such image "proofs" escape the measure.
Predictions in the corpus
Of the 4,735 non-empty drops annotated by gpt-5.6-luna, 598 (13%) contain at least one prediction, for a total of 846 predictions (203 specific and 643 vague).
Automatic annotation, whose quality is measured below on the reference set. The line between rhetorical question, formula and vague announcement remains debatable. Paraphrases are the model's and describe what Q claims, never facts.
Share of drops containing a prediction, by month
Months with at least 5 drops, up to December 2020.
What Q announces
Whom do the predictions target?
Prediction subjects matched to the actor dictionary. "United States" is omitted because it absorbs every generic subject ("the U.S. military"…).
Predictions with a deadline
Predictions for which the model could set a date (stated or derived). To be checked one by one against the facts.
| drop # | Date | Deadline | Type | What Q claims (paraphrase) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oct 28, 2017 | Oct 30, 2017 | Other | Q claims that Hillary Clinton’s passport will be flagged beginning at 12:01 a.m. on October 30, 2017. |
| 1 | Oct 28, 2017 | Oct 30, 2017 | Military action | Q claims that the U.S. military will conduct an operation while the National Guard is activated, including activation for duty across most major cities on October 30, 2017. |
| 2 | Oct 28, 2017 | Oct 30, 2017 | Other | Q signals that an unspecified event or development called “Mockingbird” will occur or become significant on October 30, 2017. |
| 47 | Nov 2, 2017 | Nov 2, 2017 | Attack | Q claims that a major false-flag attack will occur today. |
| 43 | Nov 2, 2017 | Nov 3, 2017 | Disclosure | Q claims that confirmations of the asserted developments will occur tomorrow. |
| 38 | Nov 2, 2017 | Nov 3, 2017 | Military action | Q claims that National Guard deployments will begin the following day. |
| 34 | Nov 1, 2017 | Nov 3, 2017 | Arrest | Q claims that an announcement of John Podesta’s arrest will occur. |
| 44 | Nov 2, 2017 | Nov 3, 2017 | Other | Q claims that the U.S. president will send an important message via Twitter before departing on Friday. |
| 15 | Oct 31, 2017 | Nov 3, 2017 | Indictment | Q claims that John Podesta will be indicted on November 3, 2017. |
| 25 | Nov 1, 2017 | Nov 3, 2017 | Disclosure | Q claims that proof or evidence related to the subject of the post will begin to emerge. |
| 34 | Nov 1, 2017 | Nov 4, 2017 | Arrest | Q claims that action related to John Podesta’s arrest will occur. |
| 16 | Oct 31, 2017 | Nov 4, 2017 | Other | Q claims that events on Friday and Saturday will deliver on the MAGA political promise. |
| 15 | Oct 31, 2017 | Nov 6, 2017 | Indictment | Q claims that Huma Abedin will be indicted on November 6, 2017. |
| 101 | Nov 5, 2017 | Nov 6, 2017 | Other | Q indicates that a publication or post associated with “TP” (apparently the President) will occur on November 6, 2017. |
| 112 | Nov 5, 2017 | Nov 7, 2017 | Election | Q claims that the elections scheduled for Tuesday will no longer matter at this stage. |
| 163 | Nov 20, 2017 | Nov 21, 2017 | Other | Q claims that a witness will appear publicly. |
| 242 | Dec 1, 2017 | Dec 2, 2017 | Other | Q claims that an unspecified event or development will occur tomorrow. |
| 243 | Dec 1, 2017 | Dec 10, 2017 | Other | Q implies that an unspecified significant event will occur or be revealed next week. |
| 353 | Dec 14, 2017 | Dec 16, 2017 | Other | Q claims that within 24 hours the trip code will be restored or Q will depart. |
| 262 | Dec 5, 2017 | Dec 27, 2017 | Disclosure | Q claims that Hussein will release or appear in a red-related video response on December 27, 2017. |
| 262 | Dec 5, 2017 | Dec 28, 2017 | Other | Q claims that Hussein will be in Asia on December 28, 2017. |
| 370 | Dec 18, 2017 | Dec 29, 2017 | Other | Q claims that an unspecified real-world event will occur when a 10-day countdown ends. |
| 464 | Jan 5, 2018 | Jan 14, 2018 | Other | Q claims that a significant, unspecified real-world event will occur next week. |
| 518 | Jan 9, 2018 | Jan 14, 2018 | Other | Q claims that a significant, unspecified event will occur during the upcoming week. |
| 538 | Jan 14, 2018 | Jan 20, 2018 | Attack | Q claims that major false-flag attacks or operations will be attempted during the current week. |
| 527 | Jan 13, 2018 | Jan 21, 2018 | Disclosure | Q claims that a larger event or development will become public the following week. |
| 530 | Jan 13, 2018 | Jan 21, 2018 | Other | Q claims that a bigger, unspecified event or development will occur next week. |
| 621 | Jan 27, 2018 | Jan 27, 2018 | Other | Q claims that a significant unspecified event will occur imminently, such that nobody will sleep that night. |
| 572 | Jan 21, 2018 | Jan 28, 2018 | Other | Q claims that a significant, globally consequential event will occur within the coming week. |
| 577 | Jan 21, 2018 | Jan 28, 2018 | Disclosure | Q claims that the current week will bring revealing developments or disclosures. |
| 636 | Jan 27, 2018 | Feb 4, 2018 | Disclosure | Q claims that every mainstream media news station will promote the same counter-narrative involving alleged Mueller-related fake news and Russia. |
| 785 | Feb 16, 2018 | Feb 18, 2018 | Attack | Q warns that a possible car attack may occur in London, UK, within 24 hours. |
| 700 | Feb 9, 2018 | Feb 18, 2018 | Other | Q suggests that an unspecified event will occur next week. |
| 865 | Mar 6, 2018 | Mar 11, 2018 | Other | Q claims that a significant news event will occur during the week of March 5–11, 2018. |
| 954 | Mar 17, 2018 | Mar 25, 2018 | Other | Q claims that an unspecified significant event or events will occur next week. |
| 911 | Mar 10, 2018 | Mar 31, 2018 | Other | Q claims that significant events will occur during March, characterized as “madness.” |
| 995 | Apr 3, 2018 | Apr 5, 2018 | Military action | Q claims that a military- or border-related event, possibly involving a MOAB, will occur within one day. |
| 1027 | Apr 4, 2018 | Apr 6, 2018 | Other | Q claims that the U.S. president will remain awake throughout the night. |
| 1027 | Apr 4, 2018 | Apr 6, 2018 | Other | Q suggests that a newsworthy event will occur or be reported the following day. |
| 1010 | Apr 4, 2018 | Apr 9, 2018 | Other | Q suggests that an unspecified event involving the United Kingdom and Germany will occur within five days. |
| 1121 | Apr 10, 2018 | Apr 10, 2018 | Other | Q claims that actions taken today, described as a raid, will be met with swift action. |
| 1120 | Apr 10, 2018 | Apr 10, 2018 | Economy | Q claims that Xi Jinping or China will confirm a reduction in tariffs on automobile imports, possibly involving Ford and the United States. |
| 1067 | Apr 7, 2018 | Apr 10, 2018 | Other | Q suggests that an unspecified event will occur in Chongqing, China, on Tuesday. |
| 1226 | Apr 21, 2018 | Apr 22, 2018 | Other | Q claims that the Democratic National Committee will initiate a pre-planned lawsuit the day after the drop. |
| 1260 | Apr 24, 2018 | Apr 24, 2018 | Other | Q claims that a state dinner will take place tonight. |
| 1231 | Apr 21, 2018 | Apr 29, 2018 | Military action | Q claims that a major event referred to as “MOAB” will occur or unfold the following week. |
| 1007 | Apr 3, 2018 | Apr 30, 2018 | Other | Q claims that an unspecified event will occur in April, suggested by the phrase “April showers.” |
| 1070 | Apr 7, 2018 | Apr 30, 2018 | Military action | Q claims that a war-related event will occur in April, suggested through the phrase “April showers” following “WAR.” |
| 1294 | Apr 28, 2018 | May 6, 2018 | Other | Q claims that a significant unspecified event will occur in the week ahead. |
| 1289 | Apr 27, 2018 | May 6, 2018 | Other | Q suggests that an unspecified event or development will occur next week. |
| 1341 | May 12, 2018 | May 20, 2018 | Other | Q claims that a significant, unspecified event will occur during the coming week. |
| 1440 | Jun 3, 2018 | Jun 10, 2018 | Other | Q implies that a notable, unspecified event or series of events will occur during the coming week. |
| 1496 | Jun 13, 2018 | Jun 15, 2018 | Disclosure | Q claims that the modified redacted IG report (the RR version) will be released on June 15, 2018. |
| 1441 | Jun 10, 2018 | Jun 17, 2018 | Other | Q implies that a notable, unspecified real-world event will occur within the coming week. |
| 1540 | Jun 18, 2018 | Jun 24, 2018 | Other | Q claims that an unspecified future event will occur next. |
| 1670 | Jul 3, 2018 | Jul 4, 2018 | Other | Q claims that events or actions will be coordinated tomorrow. |
| 1595 | Jun 26, 2018 | Jul 31, 2018 | Disclosure | Q claims that July 2018 will be the month when the world discovers the truth, implying a significant disclosure of previously hidden information. |
| 1846 | Aug 11, 2018 | Aug 19, 2018 | Other | Q implies that a significant explosive or disruptive event will occur next week. |
| 2008 | Aug 30, 2018 | Aug 30, 2018 | Other | Q claims that a big rally will take place tonight. |
| 2067 | Sep 3, 2018 | Sep 4, 2018 | Other | Q claims that both chambers of the U.S. Congress—the House and Senate—will be in session. |
| 2098 | Sep 6, 2018 | Sep 6, 2018 | Other | Q claims that a significant real-world event or development will occur during the evening of September 6, 2018. |
| 2084 | Sep 4, 2018 | Sep 9, 2018 | Other | Q claims that a notable, memorable event will occur within approximately one week. |
| 2205 | Sep 17, 2018 | Sep 18, 2018 | Disclosure | Q claims that Attorney General Jeff Sessions will send a classified letter to two Supreme Court justices concerning recusal, unrecusal, and conflicts based on unclassified material. |
| 2239 | Sep 20, 2018 | Sep 20, 2018 | Other | Q implies that an unspecified concerning event may occur tonight and urges people attending to remain vigilant. |
| 2187 | Sep 16, 2018 | Sep 20, 2018 | Other | Q claims that the Department of Defense will conduct a test on Thursday to confirm the free flow of direct communications. |
| 2204 | Sep 17, 2018 | Sep 23, 2018 | Other | Q claims that Jeff Sessions and John Huber will hold meetings over the upcoming weekend, implying developments connected to those meetings. |
| 2113 | Sep 7, 2018 | Sep 30, 2018 | Disclosure | Q claims that the public will learn in September 2018 that a grand jury has been empaneled concerning Andrew McCabe. |
| 2326 | Oct 3, 2018 | Oct 5, 2018 | Disclosure | Q claims that an event involving Jeff Sessions, related to documents, will occur tomorrow. |
| 2307 | Oct 1, 2018 | Oct 7, 2018 | Other | Q claims that a vote will take place during the week of October 1, 2018. |
| 2326 | Oct 3, 2018 | Oct 7, 2018 | Other | Q claims that the confirmation of Justice K will occur over the weekend. |
| 2379 | Oct 9, 2018 | Oct 9, 2018 | Economy | Q claims that an announcement will be made that night concerning an increase in the ethanol concentration of gasoline. |
| 2270 | Sep 21, 2018 | Oct 14, 2018 | Other | Q claims that, in the coming weeks, one central location outside 8chan will become important for former /GA/ Redditors. |
| 2326 | Oct 3, 2018 | Oct 14, 2018 | Other | Q claims that an unspecified event involving Rod Rosenstein will occur the following week, and indicates that it will concern the probe rather than an update. |
| 2362 | Oct 7, 2018 | Oct 14, 2018 | Other | Q suggests that an unspecified significant event or development will occur during the following week. |
| 2301 | Sep 30, 2018 | Oct 31, 2018 | Other | Q claims that a significant, unspecified event will occur during or in connection with October. |
| 1516 | Jun 16, 2018 | Nov 1, 2018 | Disclosure | Q claims that Jeff Sessions will reveal information related to John Huber at the beginning of November 2018. |
| 2421 | Nov 5, 2018 | Nov 6, 2018 | Other | Q claims that high-priority targets will be acted against or engaged on November 5 or 6, 2018. |
| 2426 | Nov 5, 2018 | Nov 6, 2018 | Election | Q claims that the political left will have no chance in the upcoming electoral contest. |
| 2397 | Nov 3, 2018 | Nov 6, 2018 | Other | Q claims that the ongoing House and Senate investigations will be terminated around the midterm elections. |
| 1234 | Apr 21, 2018 | Nov 11, 2018 | Other | Q claims that America will be unified again by November 11, 2018. |
| 856 | Mar 6, 2018 | Nov 11, 2018 | Military action | Q claims that a memorable parade involving military personnel will take place on November 11, 2018. |
| 890 | Mar 8, 2018 | Nov 11, 2018 | Other | Q claims that an unspecified matter will be resolved by November 11, 2018. |
| 2396 | Nov 3, 2018 | Nov 11, 2018 | Other | Q claims that the U.S. president will meet with Vladimir Putin on November 11, 2018. |
| 2468 | Nov 10, 2018 | Nov 18, 2018 | Other | Q claims that the White House’s public image will remain stable during the following week. |
| 2296 | Sep 28, 2018 | Nov 30, 2018 | Other | Q claims that, if their side takes control in the November 2018 midterm elections, it will impeach Justice K. |
| 1516 | Jun 16, 2018 | Dec 1, 2018 | Other | Q claims that Hillary Clinton will panic and request a deal in December 2018, in connection with John Huber. |
| 2505 | Nov 30, 2018 | Dec 3, 2018 | Other | Q claims that an unspecified event related to the referenced whistleblower disclosure will occur on Monday. |
| 2522 | Dec 1, 2018 | Dec 9, 2018 | Other | Q claims that a state funeral for George H. W. Bush will occur the following week. |
| 2600 | Dec 12, 2018 | Dec 13, 2018 | Disclosure | Q claims that a public hearing involving Clinton whistleblowers will reveal explosive information. |
| 964 | Mar 28, 2018 | Dec 31, 2018 | Economy | Q claims that approximately $700 billion will be allocated to the military during 2018. |
| 577 | Jan 21, 2018 | Dec 31, 2018 | Other | Q claims that significant events or developments will occur during 2018. |
| 1927 | Aug 19, 2018 | Jan 1, 2019 | Other | Q endorses the stated plan that the Secretary of Defense, consulting with the Secretary of Homeland Security, will issue guidance concerning the disposition of military criminal charges. |
| 2610 | Dec 12, 2018 | Jan 1, 2019 | Disclosure | Q claims that voter fraud will not be exposed before January 2019. |
| 609 | Jan 25, 2018 | Jan 25, 2019 | Other | Q endorses or highlights the claim that Donald Trump will no longer be president within about a year. |
| 2843 | Feb 20, 2019 | Feb 21, 2019 | Other | Q claims that major real-world events will begin directly after the Mueller investigation, surpassing the spectacle of the Super Bowl. |
| 2726 | Feb 15, 2019 | Feb 25, 2019 | Attack | Q claims that attempts to carry out false-flag operations may occur in order to change the public narrative. |
| 2726 | Feb 15, 2019 | Feb 25, 2019 | Other | Q claims that a multi-day news-coverage event may occur and force a pause in other news coverage. |
| 2575 | Dec 10, 2018 | Mar 1, 2019 | Economy | Q claims that the Federal Reserve will begin a steep increase in interest rates in March 2019, allegedly with the aim of damaging the economy before the 2020 presidential election. |
| 2903 | Feb 26, 2019 | Mar 19, 2019 | Other | Q claims that major, unspecified events will occur within the next 21 days. |
| 2861 | Feb 22, 2019 | Apr 15, 2019 | Other | Q claims that LL will be offered a Supreme Court seat and that POTUS will back or confirm the offer on April 15, 2019. |
| 3332 | May 12, 2019 | May 19, 2019 | Other | Q claims that a significant, unspecified event will occur during the coming week. |
| 3340 | May 23, 2019 | May 24, 2019 | Declassification | Q claims that the remaining classified FISA materials will be declassified by May 24, 2019. |
| 3434 | Jul 14, 2019 | Jul 21, 2019 | Other | Q claims that the coming week will be notable or memorable due to unspecified real-world events. |
| 3376 | Jul 8, 2019 | Aug 1, 2019 | Other | Q claims that a population of placeholders will begin in August 2019. |
| 3559 | Jul 30, 2019 | Aug 4, 2019 | Disclosure | Q claims that news concerning the alleged declassification or disclosure of exculpatory FISA-surveillance evidence will emerge during this week. |
| 3513 | Jul 26, 2019 | Aug 4, 2019 | Resignation | Q endorses or repeats the prediction that the Director of National Intelligence, Dan Coats, will be replaced or leave office next week. |
| 3513 | Jul 26, 2019 | Aug 4, 2019 | Other | Q endorses or repeats the prediction that there will be news about Durham next week. |
| 3513 | Jul 26, 2019 | Aug 4, 2019 | Declassification | Q endorses or repeats the prediction that documents will be declassified next week. |
| 2620 | Dec 12, 2018 | Dec 31, 2019 | Other | Q claims that the U.S. Senate will investigate matters concerning 2019. |
| 3472 | Jul 24, 2019 | Dec 31, 2019 | Other | Q claims that 2019 will be a year of a major, unspecified event or development described as a “boomerang.” |
| 500 | Jan 7, 2018 | Apr 10, 2020 | Military action | Q suggests that a non-nuclear military action described as “FIRE & FURY” will occur or be initiated on April 10, 2020, involving unspecified states and commands. |
| 3329 | Apr 27, 2019 | Apr 27, 2020 | Disclosure | Q claims that a bigger story related to the referenced figures and leak investigations will be discovered within one year. |
| 4010 | Apr 30, 2020 | May 1, 2020 | Other | Q states that May 1, 2020, will be observed as Law Day, U.S.A., with Americans and relevant institutions urged to reflect on the rule of law and display the U.S. flag. |
| 4072 | May 2, 2020 | May 10, 2020 | Other | Q claims that a significant, unspecified event will occur during the coming week. |
| 4686 | Sep 13, 2020 | Sep 25, 2020 | Other | Q suggests that notable real-world events will unfold during September 14–18 and September 21–25, 2020, and should be tracked. |
| 4816 | Oct 6, 2020 | Oct 7, 2020 | Disclosure | Q suggests that the president will release or disclose the relevant GSA v. FBI material without redactions on October 7, 2020. |
| 4924 | Oct 21, 2020 | Oct 23, 2020 | Other | Q claims that unspecified explosive or otherwise significant events (“booms”) will occur tomorrow. |
| 4815 | Oct 6, 2020 | Oct 31, 2020 | Other | Q claims that a significant event or development will occur during October 2020, characterized as “Red October.” |
| 4800 | Oct 1, 2020 | Oct 31, 2020 | Other | Q claims that an unspecified significant event will occur during October 2020. |
| 4825 | Oct 7, 2020 | Nov 3, 2020 | Other | Q claims that the cited New York executive order will remain in effect until November 3, 2020. |
| 4294 | May 20, 2020 | Nov 3, 2020 | Other | Q claims that the fear and compliance tactics associated with vote-by-mail and stay-at-home measures will end by Election Day. |
| 4381 | Jun 1, 2020 | Nov 3, 2020 | Other | Q claims that MSNBC and affiliated media will incite and promote division before the 2020 U.S. election unless Democrats regain congressional control. |
| 4620 | Jul 31, 2020 | Nov 3, 2020 | Other | Q claims that Democratic political actors will use COVID-19 infection rates to justify restricting public activity through November 3, 2020. |
| 4587 | Jul 17, 2020 | Nov 4, 2020 | Attack | Q claims that attempts at massive cyberattacks will occur on November 4, 2020. |
| 4587 | Jul 17, 2020 | Nov 4, 2020 | Other | Q claims that the COVID-19 narrative will end one day after Election Day. |
| 3970 | Apr 15, 2020 | Dec 31, 2020 | Election | Q claims that the 2020 election will bring about or contribute to a worldwide awakening. |
| 3691 | Dec 15, 2019 | Dec 31, 2020 | Other | Q claims that Edward Snowden will return home in 2020. |
| 4842 | Oct 9, 2020 | Dec 31, 2020 | Death | Q projects that total deaths from all causes in the United States in 2020 will be approximately 2,838,000. |
| 4778 | Sep 28, 2020 | Jul 12, 2021 | Other | Q claims that a trial involving Ghislaine Maxwell will take place on July 12, 2021. |
Specific predictions (203)
Show data
| drop # | Date | Type | What Q claims (paraphrase) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oct 28, 2017 | Other | Q claims that Hillary Clinton’s passport will be flagged beginning at 12:01 a.m. on October 30, 2017. |
| 1 | Oct 28, 2017 | Military action | Q claims that the U.S. military will conduct an operation while the National Guard is activated, including activation for duty across most major cities on October 30, 2017. |
| 2 | Oct 28, 2017 | Arrest | Q claims that Hillary Clinton will be arrested after her alleged detention. |
| 2 | Oct 28, 2017 | Other | Q claims that the President will not appear on television to address the nation. |
| 2 | Oct 28, 2017 | Other | Q claims that the President will isolate himself to avoid negative public optics. |
| 4 | Oct 29, 2017 | Other | Q claims that POTUS will not address the nation about these issues, purportedly to remain neutral for public-relations reasons. |
| 6 | Oct 29, 2017 | Other | Q claims that POTUS will not address the nation about these issues while indictments begin, in order to remain publicly neutral. |
| 8 | Oct 29, 2017 | Other | Q claims that Senate Republicans who are dropping out will nevertheless vote in support of President Trump. |
| 15 | Oct 31, 2017 | Indictment | Q claims that John Podesta will be indicted on November 3, 2017. |
| 15 | Oct 31, 2017 | Indictment | Q claims that Huma Abedin will be indicted on November 6, 2017. |
| 16 | Oct 31, 2017 | Other | Q claims that Donald Trump will face no impeachment risk. |
| 19 | Nov 1, 2017 | Disclosure | Q claims that local and national Black leaders whom Q characterizes as false will next be exposed as shills for the Democratic Party. |
| 34 | Nov 1, 2017 | Arrest | Q claims that an announcement of John Podesta’s arrest will occur. |
| 34 | Nov 1, 2017 | Arrest | Q claims that action related to John Podesta’s arrest will occur. |
| 34 | Nov 1, 2017 | Attack | Q claims that public riots will occur in an effort to prevent the arrests and capture of additional senior public officials. |
| 34 | Nov 1, 2017 | Military action | Q claims that temporary military control will be imposed within the country. |
| 34 | Nov 1, 2017 | Military action | Q claims that special-operations missions will be conducted domestically and abroad. |
| 34 | Nov 1, 2017 | Disclosure | Q claims that the Emergency Broadcast System will be activated to deliver a message to the public. |
| 38 | Nov 2, 2017 | Military action | Q claims that National Guard deployments will begin the following day. |
| 166 | Nov 20, 2017 | Other | Q claims that Twitter will implement a new tracking, cookies, or spyware-related policy effective around mid-December. |
| 166 | Nov 20, 2017 | Other | Q presents as a possible outcome that the Secret Service will advise the president to stop using Twitter because of the new policy and associated security risks. |
| 166 | Nov 20, 2017 | Other | Q presents as a possible outcome that Twitter will silence or restrict the president because of its new policy. |
| 166 | Nov 20, 2017 | Other | Q claims that POTUS will refuse to be silenced on Twitter. |
| 228 | Nov 25, 2017 | Other | Q claims that the leadership of the United States will change. |
| 228 | Nov 25, 2017 | Other | Q claims that the leadership of Saudi Arabia will change. |
| 228 | Nov 25, 2017 | Other | Q claims that the leadership of Germany will change. |
| 228 | Nov 25, 2017 | Other | Q suggests that the leadership of Pakistan may change. |
| 262 | Dec 5, 2017 | Disclosure | Q claims that Hussein will release or appear in a red-related video response on December 27, 2017. |
| 262 | Dec 5, 2017 | Other | Q claims that Hussein will be in Asia on December 28, 2017. |
| 322 | Dec 9, 2017 | Other | Q claims that the New England Patriots will win the fourth quarter. |
| 393 | Dec 19, 2017 | Other | Q claims that, within the next few months, board owners, moderators, and other supporters will receive a personalized message on multiple platforms recognizing their contributions. |
| 414 | Dec 21, 2017 | Disclosure | Q claims that the President of the United States will directly verify information in order to authorize its dissemination. |
| 474 | Jan 6, 2018 | Disclosure | Q claims that Matlock will become public. |
| 510 | Jan 7, 2018 | Other | Q claims that POTUS will alter his tweets to appear at one-minute intervals and add the letter “Q.” |
| 532 | Jan 14, 2018 | Other | Q claims that the president may retweet one or more of the referenced memes or posts. |
| 566 | Jan 19, 2018 | Disclosure | Q claims that the referenced memo will be released after final clearance is completed. |
| 570 | Jan 21, 2018 | Disclosure | Q claims that the memo will reinstate Jeff Sessions’s authority over matters related to Russia and other investigations. |
| 570 | Jan 21, 2018 | Disclosure | Q claims that the memo will demonstrate collusion at the highest levels. |
| 570 | Jan 21, 2018 | Disclosure | Q claims that the memo will demonstrate that the Obama administration weaponized the intelligence community to ensure Donald Trump’s defeat and maintain an insurance plan. |
| 570 | Jan 21, 2018 | Disclosure | Q claims that the memo will demonstrate that knowingly false intelligence was provided to FISA judges to obtain warrants. |
| 576 | Jan 21, 2018 | Disclosure | Q claims that the NSA will accidentally release all of the referenced materials. |
| 609 | Jan 25, 2018 | Other | Q endorses or highlights the claim that Donald Trump will no longer be president within about a year. |
| 636 | Jan 27, 2018 | Disclosure | Q claims that every mainstream media news station will promote the same counter-narrative involving alleged Mueller-related fake news and Russia. |
| 768 | Feb 15, 2018 | Other | Q claims that the QAnon discussion board will be spread and discussed across all platforms in the coming months. |
| 780 | Feb 16, 2018 | Disclosure | Q claims that the DHS will submit a final report to the White House, DOJ, and other state and local agencies outlining its election-interference findings as early as March 2018. |
| 785 | Feb 16, 2018 | Attack | Q warns that a possible car attack may occur in London, UK, within 24 hours. |
| 912 | Mar 10, 2018 | Other | Q claims that the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing alliance will cease to exist or otherwise no longer continue for much longer. |
| 964 | Mar 28, 2018 | Economy | Q claims that approximately $700 billion will be allocated to the military during 2018. |
| 1008 | Apr 4, 2018 | Other | Q implies that the President of the United States will eventually become subject to a criminal investigation. |
| 1009 | Apr 4, 2018 | Military action | Q claims that troops will be deployed to the border. |
| 1014 | Apr 4, 2018 | Resignation | Q claims that Mark Zuckerberg will step down as chairman. |
| 1043 | Apr 6, 2018 | Disclosure | Q claims that photographs will emerge showing Hussein (Barack Obama) holding an AK-47 while wearing tribal attire. |
| 1120 | Apr 10, 2018 | Economy | Q claims that Xi Jinping or China will confirm a reduction in tariffs on automobile imports, possibly involving Ford and the United States. |
| 1124 | Apr 10, 2018 | Disclosure | Q suggests that Edward Snowden will testify and then release or disclose information. |
| 1149 | Apr 15, 2018 | Resignation | Q claims that Ruth Bader Ginsburg will step down from the Supreme Court. |
| 1219 | Apr 21, 2018 | Disclosure | Q claims that Jeff Sessions will make a public announcement concerning leaks, potentially involving journalism ethics and standards. |
| 1226 | Apr 21, 2018 | Other | Q claims that the Democratic National Committee will initiate a pre-planned lawsuit the day after the drop. |
| 1241 | Apr 23, 2018 | Other | Q claims that the United States will not agree to continue the Iran nuclear deal in its current form. |
| 1266 | Apr 25, 2018 | Resignation | Q claims that the Speaker of the House will resign. |
| 1287 | Apr 27, 2018 | Other | Q cites or endorses the claim that the Mueller probe will reach a resolution within a week or two. |
| 1307 | Apr 30, 2018 | Declassification | Q claims that the President of the United States will declassify information concerning Syria, Iran, and the Uranium One connection. |
| 1401 | May 17, 2018 | Disclosure | Q claims that the Justice Department inspector general will report that the FBI and DOJ broke the law during the Clinton email investigation. |
| 1433 | May 21, 2018 | Other | Q claims that, after the information is revealed, Rod Rosenstein will have to recuse himself or be forcibly removed from office. |
| 1470 | Jun 12, 2018 | Disclosure | Q claims that information will be released, after which the Russia investigation will end and the origins of the narrative will be shown to be corrupt. |
| 1494 | Jun 13, 2018 | Declassification | Q claims that the president will declassify all relevant materials, prompted by optics and efforts to portray the Russia investigation as a political attack or cover-up. |
| 1496 | Jun 13, 2018 | Disclosure | Q claims that the modified redacted IG report (the RR version) will be released on June 15, 2018. |
| 1516 | Jun 16, 2018 | Disclosure | Q claims that Jeff Sessions will reveal information related to John Huber at the beginning of November 2018. |
| 1516 | Jun 16, 2018 | Other | Q claims that Hillary Clinton will panic and request a deal in December 2018, in connection with John Huber. |
| 1553 | Jun 18, 2018 | Other | Q states that U.S. Attorney John Huber will provide recommendations about whether additional matters should be opened, whether existing investigations need more resources, or whether a special counsel should be appointed. |
| 1589 | Jun 26, 2018 | Other | Q claims that Rod Rosenstein will either comply with document demands or face impeachment and removal if he refuses. |
| 1589 | Jun 26, 2018 | Disclosure | Q suggests that DOJ texts and other communications—including messages and call records—will soon be publicly disclosed. |
| 1603 | Jun 27, 2018 | Disclosure | Q claims that attempts to frame Russia and the U.S. president will soon be exposed. |
| 1603 | Jun 27, 2018 | Disclosure | Q claims that people pushing forced immigration will be exposed, including the reasons behind their actions. |
| 1608 | Jun 27, 2018 | Other | Q presents Trey Gowdy's stated intention that he will not seek reelection to Congress or any other elected office and will instead return to the justice system. |
| 1745 | Jul 28, 2018 | Disclosure | Q claims that FISA-related material will immediately confirm illegal acts by the people who signed it. |
| 1745 | Jul 28, 2018 | Disclosure | Q claims that FISA-related material will immediately confirm that the Obama administration’s alleged spying campaign to influence an election was based on false information. |
| 1745 | Jul 28, 2018 | Declassification | Q claims that the president will declassify key portions of FISA-related material showing that the dossier was used as the primary source to obtain high-level intelligence surveillance of a Republican presidential opponent and, after the election, of the president. |
| 1762 | Jul 30, 2018 | Other | Q claims that California will experience major fires. |
| 1762 | Jul 30, 2018 | Economy | Q claims that California will declare a state of emergency and request billions of dollars in federal assistance. |
| 1825 | Aug 7, 2018 | Election | Q suggests that Democrats will achieve a "blue wave" and win a majority in the House of Representatives in the upcoming midterm elections. |
| 1833 | Aug 10, 2018 | Election | Q claims that Devin Nunes will be removed from office. |
| 1927 | Aug 19, 2018 | Other | Q endorses the stated plan that the Secretary of Defense, consulting with the Secretary of Homeland Security, will issue guidance concerning the disposition of military criminal charges. |
| 1947 | Aug 28, 2018 | Other | Q claims that Google will be subjected to government regulation. |
| 2067 | Sep 3, 2018 | Other | Q claims that both chambers of the U.S. Congress—the House and Senate—will be in session. |
| 2070 | Sep 3, 2018 | Resignation | Q claims that Bruce Ohr’s employment termination is imminent. |
| 2109 | Sep 7, 2018 | Resignation | Q claims that Rod Rosenstein will leave his position, likely through resignation or removal. |
| 2113 | Sep 7, 2018 | Disclosure | Q claims that the public will learn in September 2018 that a grand jury has been empaneled concerning Andrew McCabe. |
| 2129 | Sep 10, 2018 | Resignation | Q claims that declassification of the FISA materials will initiate Rod Rosenstein's resignation, recusal, and/or removal. |
| 2129 | Sep 10, 2018 | Other | Q claims that declassification of the FISA materials will lead to all of the signers being under investigation. |
| 2129 | Sep 10, 2018 | Declassification | Q claims that full declassification of the FISA materials will demonstrate that the U.S. government under Barack Obama knowingly presented false evidence to the FISC to obtain intelligence surveillance authority over a presidential candidate for the purpose of influencing the 2016 election and retaining political power. |
| 2168 | Sep 12, 2018 | Other | Q claims that other sites tracking Q-related communications will collapse, leaving 8chan as the main communications hub. |
| 2187 | Sep 16, 2018 | Other | Q claims that the Department of Defense will conduct a test on Thursday to confirm the free flow of direct communications. |
| 2200 | Sep 17, 2018 | Other | Q claims that Judge K will be confirmed regardless of the sexual-assault allegations and any pullback of the declassification effort. |
| 2204 | Sep 17, 2018 | Other | Q claims that Jeff Sessions and John Huber will hold meetings over the upcoming weekend, implying developments connected to those meetings. |
| 2205 | Sep 17, 2018 | Disclosure | Q claims that Attorney General Jeff Sessions will send a classified letter to two Supreme Court justices concerning recusal, unrecusal, and conflicts based on unclassified material. |
| 2210 | Sep 18, 2018 | Resignation | Q claims that Rod Rosenstein will leave his position, presumably by being fired or otherwise departing. |
| 2250 | Sep 21, 2018 | Election | Q claims that Republicans will achieve a major electoral gain—a “red wave”—in the November 2018 elections. |
| 2253 | Sep 21, 2018 | Declassification | Q claims that declassification of FISA materials will have a major destabilizing impact. |
| 2273 | Sep 23, 2018 | Declassification | Q claims that FISA-related materials will be declassified and that the information will become public. |
| 2273 | Sep 23, 2018 | Resignation | Q claims that the release of the FISA materials will force Rod Rosenstein to resign or be terminated. |
| 2283 | Sep 27, 2018 | Other | Q claims that one or more Supreme Court justices will receive full-time security details. |
| 2286 | Sep 27, 2018 | Court ruling | Q claims that Justice K (Brett Kavanaugh) will be confirmed. |
| 2286 | Sep 27, 2018 | Resignation | Q claims that Rod Rosenstein will leave his position. |
| 2286 | Sep 27, 2018 | Other | Q signals that a presidential emergency-alert test will occur. |
| 2296 | Sep 28, 2018 | Other | Q claims that, if their side takes control in the November 2018 midterm elections, it will impeach Justice K. |
| 2298 | Sep 29, 2018 | Other | Q claims that Google and Facebook will follow Twitter in censoring content deemed threatening to their survival or to an election. |
| 2300 | Sep 30, 2018 | Court ruling | Q claims that Brett Kavanaugh will be confirmed as a justice. |
| 2300 | Sep 30, 2018 | Resignation | Q claims that Rod Rosenstein will leave his position as deputy attorney general. |
| 2326 | Oct 3, 2018 | Other | Q claims that the confirmation of Justice K will occur over the weekend. |
| 2358 | Oct 6, 2018 | Other | Q claims that Justice K will be impeached. |
| 2368 | Oct 8, 2018 | Other | Q claims that Democrats will pursue impeachment of Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, contingent on taking control of the Senate. |
| 2369 | Oct 8, 2018 | Other | Q claims that Rod Rosenstein will testify before the U.S. House as the next development. |
| 2381 | Oct 9, 2018 | Other | Q claims that Bruce Ohr will be terminated imminently. |
| 2396 | Nov 3, 2018 | Other | Q claims that the U.S. president will meet with Vladimir Putin on November 11, 2018. |
| 2397 | Nov 3, 2018 | Other | Q claims that the ongoing House and Senate investigations will be terminated around the midterm elections. |
| 2416 | Nov 4, 2018 | Election | Q claims that organized groups, allegedly including ANTIFA or other organizations, will conduct a coordinated push involving voter intimidation or disruption at 29 or more battleground voting locations. |
| 2444 | Nov 7, 2018 | Other | Q claims that oversight will shift from the House to the Senate Judiciary Committee. |
| 2455 | Nov 7, 2018 | Other | Q claims that there will be no recusal in the matter under discussion, apparently referring to acting Attorney General Matthew Whitaker's recusal from the Russia investigation. |
| 2501 | Nov 25, 2018 | Disclosure | Q claims that selected classified documents, including classified documents 1–4, will become public. |
| 2512 | Nov 30, 2018 | Indictment | Q claims that Robert Mueller will face criminal charges related to Uranium One (U1). |
| 2522 | Dec 1, 2018 | Other | Q claims that a state funeral for George H. W. Bush will occur the following week. |
| 2539 | Dec 3, 2018 | Disclosure | Q claims that the public will soon learn that the DOJ, FBI, and other U.S. and foreign entities have been working behind the scenes on a major criminal investigation. |
| 2552 | Dec 5, 2018 | Resignation | Q claims that FBI official Peter Strzok will depart or has departed the bureau, such that no high-ranking FBI officials involved in the two investigations will remain. |
| 2575 | Dec 10, 2018 | Economy | Q claims that the Federal Reserve will begin a steep increase in interest rates in March 2019, allegedly with the aim of damaging the economy before the 2020 presidential election. |
| 2579 | Dec 11, 2018 | Military action | Q claims that President Trump will use the U.S. military to build a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border if congressional leaders Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer do not agree to border-wall funding. |
| 2601 | Dec 12, 2018 | Resignation | Q claims that Rod Rosenstein will leave his position. |
| 2610 | Dec 12, 2018 | Other | Q claims that a voter-ID initiative will be pushed in 2019, based on verifiable intelligence concerning fraud. |
| 2620 | Dec 12, 2018 | Other | Q claims that the U.S. Senate will investigate matters concerning 2019. |
| 2621 | Dec 12, 2018 | Disclosure | Q claims that voter fraud in California will eventually be brought to light. |
| 2681 | Feb 9, 2019 | Other | Q claims that William Barr will be installed as Attorney General. |
| 2681 | Feb 9, 2019 | Declassification | Q claims that Barr and Matthew Whitaker will review the relevant classified notes and reservations concerning declassification. |
| 2681 | Feb 9, 2019 | Declassification | Q claims that Barr and Whitaker will remove the declassification review assignment from the Office of Inspector General. |
| 2681 | Feb 9, 2019 | Declassification | Q claims that Barr will execute the President's declassification order and provide House committee members with supplemental documentation in a classified setting. |
| 2681 | Feb 9, 2019 | Other | Q claims that Matthew Whitaker will remain on the senior staff of the Department of Justice. |
| 2681 | Feb 9, 2019 | Other | Q claims that Barr will meet with John Huber and the Office of Inspector General. |
| 2681 | Feb 9, 2019 | Other | Q claims that House Democrats will threaten to subpoena Barr and Whitaker over declassification, the special counsel report, and Huber-related matters. |
| 2681 | Feb 9, 2019 | Military action | Q claims that there will be a meeting with North Korea concerning a denuclearization plan or process, followed by sanctions relief and humanitarian aid. |
| 2694 | Feb 11, 2019 | Disclosure | Q claims that Adam Schiff will leak classified information again. |
| 2711 | Feb 14, 2019 | Other | Q indicates that Donald Trump will sign the border-security bill and declare a national emergency at the U.S.-Mexico border. |
| 2725 | Feb 14, 2019 | Other | Q claims that Bill and Hillary Clinton’s public health will begin to deteriorate rapidly. |
| 2816 | Feb 19, 2019 | Declassification | Q claims that investigations by SDNY, AS, and MW intended to delay or prevent the release of the documents will fail. |
| 2839 | Feb 20, 2019 | Disclosure | Q claims that Robert Mueller will deliver his report to the Department of Justice before the Office of the Inspector General releases its next installment. |
| 2861 | Feb 22, 2019 | Other | Q claims that LL will be offered a Supreme Court seat and that POTUS will back or confirm the offer on April 15, 2019. |
| 2938 | Mar 3, 2019 | Declassification | Q claims that declassification will reveal the other data or evidentiary anchors provided to the FISC to obtain the surveillance warrant. |
| 3071 | Mar 14, 2019 | Election | Q claims that Democrats will steal the 2020 U.S. elections. |
| 3198 | Mar 26, 2019 | Resignation | Q claims or implies that Kim Foxx will leave her position or otherwise be removed from office. |
| 3229 | Mar 27, 2019 | Indictment | Q endorses the claim that Christopher Steele will probably be indicted in connection with the dossier and FISA applications. |
| 3237 | Mar 27, 2019 | Other | Q claims that the U.S. Department of Justice will prosecute Jussie Smollett in connection with the dropped charges. |
| 3255 | Mar 28, 2019 | Other | Q claims that the FBI and Department of Justice will review the Jussie Smollett case in Chicago. |
| 3340 | May 23, 2019 | Declassification | Q claims that the remaining classified FISA materials will be declassified by May 24, 2019. |
| 3370 | Jul 8, 2019 | Disclosure | Q claims that it will be revealed that Jeff Sessions began the investigation into Jeffrey Epstein. |
| 3435 | Jul 14, 2019 | Indictment | Q claims that federal charges will be brought against Jussie Smollett. |
| 3513 | Jul 26, 2019 | Resignation | Q endorses or repeats the prediction that the Director of National Intelligence, Dan Coats, will be replaced or leave office next week. |
| 3668 | Dec 14, 2019 | Attack | Q claims that planned and coordinated attacks, characterized as a smear campaign, will be directed at William Barr. |
| 3691 | Dec 15, 2019 | Other | Q claims that Edward Snowden will return home in 2020. |
| 3724 | Dec 18, 2019 | Election | Q claims that Democrats will interfere in the 2020 election. |
| 3779 | Jan 21, 2020 | Court ruling | Q claims that two-thirds of the Senate will not vote to convict the president in the impeachment proceedings. |
| 3788 | Jan 23, 2020 | Other | Q claims that it will be concluded that surveillance related to the president lacked sufficient predication to establish probable cause. |
| 3841 | Feb 7, 2020 | Disclosure | Q claims that the truth about the DNC breach, alleged election interference, and Hillary Clinton's private server/email investigation will be made public. |
| 3915 | Apr 8, 2020 | Election | Q claims that Bernie Sanders will drop out of the presidential race. |
| 3932 | Apr 10, 2020 | Resignation | Q claims that the House of Representatives will push to remove William Barr from office. |
| 3932 | Apr 10, 2020 | Other | Q claims that the House of Representatives will open investigations concerning William Barr and John Durham. |
| 3957 | Apr 14, 2020 | Other | Q claims that pro-President accounts will face an impending blackout or removal. |
| 3992 | Apr 28, 2020 | Court ruling | Q claims that the Mueller investigation was intended to stall until the midterm elections, after which ongoing House and Senate investigations would be terminated. |
| 3992 | Apr 28, 2020 | Court ruling | Q claims that the Mueller investigation was intended to fuel impeachment or removal proceedings against the president. |
| 3992 | Apr 28, 2020 | Election | Q claims that the Mueller investigation was intended to mobilize the Democratic Party for a victory in the midterm elections. |
| 3993 | Apr 28, 2020 | Declassification | Q claims that Gang of Eight intelligence material will be declassified, at which point Adam Schiff’s role will become critical. |
| 4010 | Apr 30, 2020 | Other | Q states that May 1, 2020, will be observed as Law Day, U.S.A., with Americans and relevant institutions urged to reflect on the rule of law and display the U.S. flag. |
| 4220 | May 12, 2020 | Other | Q claims that the approximately $3 trillion coronavirus relief bill will never become law. |
| 4381 | Jun 1, 2020 | Other | Q claims that MSNBC and affiliated media will incite and promote division before the 2020 U.S. election unless Democrats regain congressional control. |
| 4414 | Jun 4, 2020 | Other | Q claims that the president’s Twitter account will be removed. |
| 4414 | Jun 4, 2020 | Other | Q claims that a communications blackout will occur across the continental United States. |
| 4414 | Jun 4, 2020 | Other | Q claims that Nancy Pelosi or Mike Pence will be moved. |
| 4414 | Jun 4, 2020 | Military action | Q claims that military assets, including the 10th Mountain Division and 1st Marine Division, will be moved to central locations under the pretext of controlling citizen riots. |
| 4446 | Jun 10, 2020 | Election | Q suggests that Democrats will push for voting by mail when electronic election cheating is no longer possible. |
| 4489 | Jun 21, 2020 | Economy | Q claims that COVID-19 lockdowns will wipe out the president’s economic gains. |
| 4489 | Jun 21, 2020 | Economy | Q claims that COVID-19 lockdowns will wipe out the president’s unemployment gains. |
| 4489 | Jun 21, 2020 | Other | Q claims that COVID-19 lockdowns will prevent or weaken the president’s rallies and gatherings. |
| 4489 | Jun 21, 2020 | Other | Q claims that lockdown policies will close churches and restrict person-to-person interaction. |
| 4489 | Jun 21, 2020 | Other | Q claims that COVID-related policies will increase the reported death toll by sending COVID-positive seniors into care facilities and combining pneumonia and influenza deaths with COVID deaths. |
| 4489 | Jun 21, 2020 | Other | Q claims that Biden will hide from public appearances to avoid embarrassment. |
| 4489 | Jun 21, 2020 | Election | Q claims that Democratic-controlled states will flood voters’ doorsteps with mail-in ballots. |
| 4489 | Jun 21, 2020 | Other | Q claims that unrest associated with the Black Lives Matter campaign will be released in controlled cities and designated safe zones, with arrested people released through mayoral or gubernatorial coordination. |
| 4489 | Jun 21, 2020 | Attack | Q claims that Antifa will be inserted into designated safe zones, producing violent unrest and attempts to breach the White House or other central locations. |
| 4489 | Jun 21, 2020 | Military action | Q claims that such unrest will be used to provoke President Trump into deploying the military and generate footage of a peaceful protester being shot or the White House perimeter being breached. |
| 4489 | Jun 21, 2020 | Economy | Q claims that a second COVID-19 wave will give Democratic mayors and governors an opportunity to impose new restrictions, limit economic recovery, and sustain the mail-in-voting narrative. |
| 4489 | Jun 21, 2020 | Court ruling | Q claims that grand-jury proceedings will be halted because of close-proximity COVID restrictions. |
| 4489 | Jun 21, 2020 | Other | Q claims that witnesses called in pending investigations, including the Durham investigation, will be prevented from traveling by invoking COVID-19 safety concerns. |
| 4543 | Jun 29, 2020 | Disclosure | Q claims that some commanding officers may provide classified information that does not reflect the positions of the U.S. president or the U.S. attorney general. |
| 4620 | Jul 31, 2020 | Other | Q claims that Democratic political actors will use COVID-19 infection rates to justify restricting public activity through November 3, 2020. |
| 4620 | Jul 31, 2020 | Election | Q claims that the Democratic convention will be delayed as part of a strategic effort to replace or take over the party’s nominee after the convention. |
| 4657 | Sep 10, 2020 | Other | Q claims that the Biden campaign will find an excuse or reason to terminate the debates. |
| 4657 | Sep 10, 2020 | Disclosure | Q claims that the Biden campaign will be provided with the debate questions in advance. |
| 4657 | Sep 10, 2020 | Disclosure | Q claims that the Biden campaign will be provided with the debate questions in advance and assistance through a special communication device. |
| 4688 | Sep 13, 2020 | Election | Q claims that actors will use mass mail-in-ballot distribution and related legal challenges to rig or delay the outcome of the 2020 U.S. presidential election after an election-night defeat. |
| 4688 | Sep 13, 2020 | Election | Q claims that a Biden victory would result in the country healing and political violence ending. |
| 4778 | Sep 28, 2020 | Other | Q claims that a trial involving Ghislaine Maxwell will take place on July 12, 2021. |
| 4816 | Oct 6, 2020 | Disclosure | Q suggests that the president will release or disclose the relevant GSA v. FBI material without redactions on October 7, 2020. |
| 4825 | Oct 7, 2020 | Other | Q claims that the cited New York executive order will remain in effect until November 3, 2020. |
| 4842 | Oct 9, 2020 | Death | Q projects that total deaths from all causes in the United States in 2020 will be approximately 2,838,000. |
| 4893 | Oct 18, 2020 | Court ruling | Q suggests that Hunter Biden will be unanimously convicted by a jury. |
| 4893 | Oct 18, 2020 | Court ruling | Q suggests that Judge Ronnie Abrams will overturn Hunter Biden’s conviction. |
| 4893 | Oct 18, 2020 | Court ruling | Q suggests that a federal appeals court will reinstate Hunter Biden’s conviction after it is overturned. |
The reference set
150 randomly drawn drops hand-annotated following published guidelines (downloadable under Data), 36 of which contain at least one prediction.
| Random sample stratified by year | 5 of 75 |
|---|---|
| Enriched sample (announcement words: will, soon, boom, arrest…) | 31 of 75 |
| Types of announced events | other (17), disclosure (7), resignation (4), indictment (3), arrest (2), declassification (2), military (1), attack (1), election (1) |
| Specificity of announcements | 7 specific, 31 vague |
Annotated by a model (Claude) following the guidelines, to be reviewed by a human. The line between rhetorical question and announcement remains debatable.
Which model should annotate the corpus?
| Model | F1 | 95% CI | Precision | Recall | Type | Deadline | Corpus cost | Latency (s) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
gpt-6.1-sol | 0.90 | 0.82–0.96 | 0.85 | 0.94 | 74% | 88% | 4.34 $ | 2.1 |
gpt-5.6-luna — recommended | 0.86 | 0.78–0.94 | 0.84 | 0.89 | 69% | 94% | 0.59 $ | 1.2 |
gpt-6-astra | 0.85 | 0.76–0.93 | 0.82 | 0.89 | 69% | 91% | 21.37 $ | 2.1 |
gpt-5-mini | 0.83 | 0.73–0.91 | 0.74 | 0.94 | 79% | 85% | 1.14 $ | 1.3 |
gpt-6-luna | 0.81 | 0.70–0.90 | 0.79 | 0.83 | 77% | 90% | 0.31 $ | 1.5 |
gpt-5-nano | 0.76 | 0.63–0.86 | 0.74 | 0.78 | 71% | 86% | 0.36 $ | 1.6 |
gpt-4.1-mini | 0.73 | 0.61–0.83 | 0.65 | 0.83 | 73% | 83% | 0.78 $ | 0.7 |
OpenAI prices as of Oct 12, 2026. F1 on detecting drops with a prediction (36 positives out of 150), 95% bootstrap interval. Type and deadline are scored by agreement with the reference annotation on drops both mark as positive. Cost is extrapolated to the whole corpus with the Batch API.