Q drops against the facts Français

Further statistics

Indicators computed on the 4,966 drops (rhythm and bursts, activity regimes, boards, cited sources, references, religious vocabulary, readability). Each section gives its method and references.

Rhythm: bursts, not a steady flow

The median interval between two drops is 14 min (quartiles 5 min and 56 min). 26% of drops follow the previous one within 5 minutes, 75% within an hour. Burstiness B = 0.91, on a scale from 0 for random posting (Poisson process) to 1 for highly concentrated activity. Memory M = 0.04 (0.17 on log intervals), meaning that a short interval is slightly more often followed by another short one.

Interval between consecutive drops

Log scale, from seconds to months.

Grouping drops less than 30 minutes apart gives 1,743 sessions. 85% of drops belong to a multi-drop session. Such a session has a median of 3 drops and lasts 23 minutes, and the longest has 45.

Session size

Method

The 30-minute threshold is conventional, and the split is not very sensitive to it (2,859 sessions at 10 min, 62% of drops in multi-drop sessions, 2,404 sessions at 15 min, 72% of drops in multi-drop sessions, 1,743 sessions at 30 min, 85% of drops in multi-drop sessions, 1,218 sessions at 60 min, 92% of drops in multi-drop sessions, 888 sessions at 120 min, 96% of drops in multi-drop sessions). B and M follow (Goh & Barabási, 2008)

Activity regimes

Weekly volume is split into periods of homogeneous rhythm. Each break is matched with the nearest timeline event (within three weeks). A break close to an event does not prove the event caused it.

Drops per week and mean of each regime

The area shows drops per week, the lines the weekly mean of each regime.

FromToWeeksMean / weekDropsEvent nearest to the start
Oct 23, 2017Oct 7, 20185047.32,365—
Oct 8, 2018Feb 10, 20191817.9322—
Feb 11, 2019Mar 31, 2019789.0623—
Apr 1, 2019Apr 5, 20205311.3598Mueller report delivered to the Attorney General (Mar 22, 2019)
Apr 6, 2020Nov 1, 20203034.61,039First drop about the pandemic ("China virus") (Mar 23, 2020)
Nov 2, 2020Nov 27, 20221080.219US presidential election (Nov 3, 2020)
Method

Optimal partitioning by dynamic programming, Poisson cost corrected for overdispersion (φ = 23.6, estimated on first differences), BIC penalty, segments of at least 6 weeks. (Jackson et al., 2005; Killick et al., 2012)

Boards: one style per platform

Q changed boards as sites closed and communities migrated. Drop length and the share of links and images vary from board to board, but this is confounded with change over time.

BoardFirstLastDropsActive daysDrops / active dayWords (median)LinksImagesQuestionsReferences
4ch /polOct 28, 2017Dec 14, 2017233278.6421%5%48%20%
8ch /polNov 25, 2017Jan 4, 20181553.0100%0%13%20%
8ch /cbtsNov 29, 2017Jan 6, 2018223249.3125%7%29%33%
8ch /thestormJan 5, 2018Jan 8, 201841410.2120%2%44%37%
8ch /greatawakeningJan 8, 2018Mar 28, 2018121245.01515%18%37%0%
8ch /qresearchJan 8, 2018Aug 1, 20192,5212629.61230%18%38%46%
8ch /patriotsfightMay 4, 2018Jul 30, 2019416775.41351%35%40%9%
8kun /qresearchNov 2, 2019Nov 27, 20221,3651877.3857%27%36%14%
8kun /projectdcommsDec 2, 2019Aug 17, 20203174.41648%61%35%3%

Cited sources

Drops contain 2,618 links to 375 different sites, in 1,716 drops. Twitter dominates. The most cited news outlet is foxnews.com (149 drops), ahead of thehill.com (41), breitbart.com (40), nytimes.com (39), washingtonpost.com (28).

The 25 most cited sites

Number of drops with at least one link to the site (square-root scale).

Type of cited site, by year

Method

Sites are classified by type, not by political leaning, and mobile and video versions of a site are merged. Archived links (archive.is) hide the original source.

References: Q replies, Q quotes Q

31% of drops reference another post on the board (>>): 23% an anonymous post, which Q answers or endorses, and 8% one of Q's own drops (387 references). These self-references are almost all posted the same day, which makes them additions rather than after-the-fact "proof" (see "Future proves past", Predictions page).

YearDropsWith referenceTo an anonTo a Q drop
201745927%24%3%
20182,18342%28%13%
20191,13230%24%7%
20201,17913%12%1%
20221323%23%0%

Religious vocabulary

6.3% of drops use religious or moral vocabulary (God, Jesus, Lord, pray, evil, armor of God…), 2.3% the word God. 9 drops quote a Bible verse, the first being drop #522 (Jan 13, 2018). The books quoted are Ephesians (3), Jeremiah (1), John (1), Colossians (1).

Share of drops with religious vocabulary, by quarter

Quarters with at least 10 drops, up to end 2020.

The religious dimension of QAnon is discussed in particular by (LaFrance, 2020; Amarasingam et al., 2023; Argentino, 2025). State of research.

Readability and lexical richness

Flesch reading ease is 65 overall (60 to 70 is plain English), with 7.0 words per sentence on average. The vocabulary has 10,698 distinct forms for 141,972 words, 4,312 of which occur only once. Zipf exponent 0.97 (close to 1 as in most texts), Heaps exponent 0.62, MATTR (500-word window) 0.57.

Reading ease (Flesch), by quarter

Higher = easier.

Lexical richness (MATTR), by quarter

Share of distinct forms over a moving 500-word window.

Method

Text without links, references or signature, with syllables estimated from vowel groups. The Flesch score is designed for prose, so on lists and questions it remains a relative marker, useful for comparing periods. (Flesch, 1948; Covington & McFall, 2010)

Prediction horizon

For the 129 predictions whose deadline is a full date, it falls a median of 7 days after the drop, with 50% within a week and 79% within a month. Q mostly announces for right now.

Delay between the drop and the announced deadline

Deadlines given as a full date (stated or derived by the model).